Genius Sports Stock Price Prediction
| GENI Stock | USD 5.11 0.16 3.04% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Genius Sports stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Genius Sports shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Genius Sports' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Genius Sports and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Genius Sports' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Genius Sports, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Genius Sports' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.01) | Wall Street Target Price 9.14 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Genius Sports based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Genius stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Genius Sports over a specific investment horizon. Using Genius Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genius Sports from the perspective of Genius Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Genius Sports using Genius Sports' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Genius using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Genius Sports' stock price.
Genius Sports Implied Volatility | 171.51 |
Genius Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genius Sports stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genius Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genius Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genius Sports' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Genius Sports. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Genius Sports to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Genius because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Genius Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 5.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Genius |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genius Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genius Sports After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Genius Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genius Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Genius Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Genius Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Genius Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genius Sports' historical news coverage. Genius Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.33 and 7.95, respectively. We have considered Genius Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Genius Sports is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genius Sports is based on 3 months time horizon.
Genius Sports Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Genius Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genius Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genius Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.83 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.11 | 5.14 | 0.19 |
|
Genius Sports Hype Timeline
Genius Sports is currently traded for 5.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Genius is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Genius Sports is about 6530.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.12. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 412.98 M. Net Loss for the year was (85.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.86 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Genius Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Genius Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genius Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Genius Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genius Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAX | MediaAlpha | 0.08 | 13 per month | 2.39 | 0.20 | 6.85 | (4.14) | 35.32 | |
| SCOR | Comscore | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.23 | (5.08) | 12.10 | |
| CMCM | Cheetah Mobile | 0.01 | 3 per month | 5.17 | 0.12 | 10.51 | (5.04) | 36.17 | |
| ONFO | Onfolio Holdings | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.25 | (7.14) | 27.27 | |
| EVER | EverQuote Class A | 0.16 | 12 per month | 3.02 | 0.24 | 8.28 | (4.97) | 18.44 | |
| ASST | Asset Entities Class | (0.16) | 5 per month | 7.85 | 0.04 | 17.95 | (13.33) | 56.86 | |
| YELP | Yelp Inc | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.23 | (2.66) | 16.62 | |
| SSTK | Shutterstock | (0.24) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.35 | (5.45) | 12.29 | |
| MTCH | Match Group | 0.63 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.11 | (3.83) | 10.44 |
Genius Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Genius price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genius using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genius charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Genius Sports Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Genius Sports stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Genius Sports, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Genius Sports based on analysis of Genius Sports hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Genius Sports's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Genius Sports's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.25 | 0.22 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.38 | 5.31 |
Story Coverage note for Genius Sports
The number of cover stories for Genius Sports depends on current market conditions and Genius Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genius Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genius Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Genius Sports Short Properties
Genius Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Genius Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Genius Sports often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Genius Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genius Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 225.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 100.3 M |
Check out Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Genius Stock please use our How to Invest in Genius Sports guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Genius Stock analysis
When running Genius Sports' price analysis, check to measure Genius Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genius Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Genius Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genius Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genius Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genius Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| AI Investment Finder Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA |
Is Genius Sports' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genius Sports. If investors know Genius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genius Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.38) | Revenue Per Share 1.828 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.207 | Return On Assets (0.06) | Return On Equity (0.15) |
The market value of Genius Sports is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genius Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genius Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genius Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genius Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genius Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genius Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genius Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.