Graham Holdings Co Stock Price Prediction
| GHC Stock | USD 718.90 18.15 2.59% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Graham Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Graham Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Graham Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Graham Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Graham Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Graham Holdings Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Graham Holdings' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 8.161 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 11.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 52.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 43.85 | Wall Street Target Price 625 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Graham Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Graham stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Graham Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Graham Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graham Holdings Co from the perspective of Graham Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Graham Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graham Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graham. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graham can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graham Holdings Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graham Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graham Holdings.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Graham Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Graham Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Graham because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Graham Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 719.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Graham |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Graham Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Graham Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graham Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graham Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graham Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graham Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graham Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graham Holdings' historical news coverage. Graham Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 717.66 and 721.06, respectively. We have considered Graham Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graham Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graham Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graham Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graham Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graham Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graham Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.70 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
718.90 | 719.36 | 0.06 |
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Graham Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Graham Holdings is traded for 718.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.46, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Graham is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 719.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 14.77%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Graham Holdings is about 44.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 719.05. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.41 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 203.94 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.27 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Graham Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Graham Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graham Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graham Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Graham Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graham Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CABO | Cable One | 17.60 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.01 | (5.05) | 10.95 | |
| ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | (0.60) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.64 | (3.57) | 23.85 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 0.12 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.60 | (2.91) | 6.21 | |
| MSGE | Madison Square Garden | 0.86 | 6 per month | 0.57 | 0.26 | 2.67 | (1.61) | 6.55 | |
| EPC | Edgewell Personal Care | 1.01 | 12 per month | 1.32 | (0.05) | 2.24 | (2.10) | 7.00 |
Graham Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graham price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graham using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graham charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Graham Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Graham Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Graham Holdings Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Graham Holdings based on analysis of Graham Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Graham Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Graham Holdings's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009664 | 0.0105 | 0.00958 | 0.009101 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.98 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 1.2 |
Story Coverage note for Graham Holdings
The number of cover stories for Graham Holdings depends on current market conditions and Graham Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graham Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graham Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Graham Holdings Short Properties
Graham Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Graham Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graham Holdings Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graham Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graham Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 898.9 M |
Check out Graham Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Graham Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Graham Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Graham Stock analysis
When running Graham Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Graham Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graham Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Graham Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graham Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graham Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graham Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graham Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graham Holdings. If investors know Graham will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graham Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 8.161 | Dividend Share 6.6 | Earnings Share 43.8 | Revenue Per Share 951.687 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
The market value of Graham Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graham that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graham Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graham Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graham Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graham Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graham Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graham Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graham Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.