Geovax Stock Future Price Prediction

GOVX -  USA Stock  

USD 4.45  0.08  1.83%

Geovax Labs stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Geovax Labs shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Geovax Labs' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Geovax Labs and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Geovax Labs' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Geovax Labs, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Geovax Labs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Geovax Labs based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Geovax stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Geovax Labs over a specific investment horizon. Using Geovax Labs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geovax Labs from the perspective of Geovax Labs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Geovax Labs Asset Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Geovax Labs reported Asset Turnover of 0.30 in 2020. Book Value per Share is likely to rise to 7.10 in 2021, whereas EBITDA Margin is likely to drop (1.65)  in 2021.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Geovax Labs. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Geovax Labs to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Geovax because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Geovax Labs after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 4.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geovax Labs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Geovax Labs in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.985.119.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.634.768.89
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.008.008.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.934.434.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Geovax Labs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Geovax Labs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Geovax Labs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Geovax Labs.

Geovax Labs After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Geovax Labs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geovax Labs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Geovax Labs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Geovax Labs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Geovax Labs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Geovax Labs' historical news coverage. Geovax Labs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 8.52, respectively. We have considered Geovax Labs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.45
2nd of August 2021
4.39
After-hype Price
8.52
Upside
Geovax Labs is moderately volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Geovax Labs is based on 3 months time horizon.

Geovax Labs Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Geovax Labs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geovax Labs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geovax Labs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.46  4.13  0.06   0.02  4 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.454.390.46 
3,177  

Geovax Labs Hype Timeline

Geovax Labs is currently traded for 4.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Geovax is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 4.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.46% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Geovax Labs is about 8978.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 4.43. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.22 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.93 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (620.8 K). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipatedpress releasewill be in about 4 days.
Please check Geovax Labs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Geovax Labs Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Geovax Labs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geovax Labs' future price movements. Getting to know how Geovax Labs rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geovax Labs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Equillium 0.04 5 per month 0.00 (0.07)  6.18 (5.99)  23.74 
Diamedica Therapeutics(0.51) 5 per month 0.00 (0.23)  6.12 (9.08)  45.07 
Denali Therapeutics(0.05) 9 per month 0.00 (0.08)  5.14 (5.03)  26.41 
Dicerna Pharmaceutic(0.80) 10 per month 2.70  0.10  5.18 (5.30)  16.82 
Design Therapeutics(0.21) 10 per month 0.00 (0.24)  4.03 (8.01)  16.62 
Precision Biosciences(0.02) 8 per month 2.76  0.0023  6.29 (5.43)  17.39 
Dynavax Technologies 0.35 7 per month 0.00 (0.0296)  5.73 (4.59)  29.94 
Dyadic International 0.12 8 per month 0.00 (0.0463)  7.20 (7.54)  25.68 
Editas Medicine 0.66 7 per month 3.74  0.0374  6.39 (5.15)  35.18 
Edesa Biotech(0.04) 3 per month 0.00 (0.09)  4.68 (5.91)  17.77 

Geovax Labs Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Geovax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geovax using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geovax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Geovax Labs Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Geovax Labs stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Geovax Labs, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Geovax Labs based on analysis of Geovax Labs hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Geovax Labs's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Geovax Labs's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Geovax Labs

The number of cover stories for Geovax Labs depends on current market conditions and Geovax Labs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Geovax Labs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Geovax Labs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Geovax Labs

Geovax Labs Short Properties

Geovax Labs' future price predictability will typically decrease when Geovax Labs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Geovax Labs often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Geovax Labs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geovax Labs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.87%
Short Percent Of Float3.01%
Float Shares6.07M
Shares Short Prior Month251.5k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.35M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month448.12k
Date Short Interest30th of June 2021
Please check Geovax Labs Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Geovax Labs information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Geovax Labs' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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The market value of Geovax Labs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Geovax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Geovax Labs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Geovax Labs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Geovax Labs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Geovax Labs underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geovax Labs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Geovax Labs value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Geovax Labs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.