Garmin Stock Price Prediction

GRMN Stock  USD 170.07  1.01  0.59%   
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Garmin's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Garmin, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

53

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Garmin's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Garmin, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Garmin's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.362
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.37
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.68
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.18
Wall Street Target Price
143.08
Using Garmin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Garmin from the perspective of Garmin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Garmin using Garmin's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Garmin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Garmin's stock price.

Garmin Short Interest

An investor who is long Garmin may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Garmin and may potentially protect profits, hedge Garmin with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
137.4506
Short Percent
0.0148
Short Ratio
3.49
Shares Short Prior Month
2.1 M
50 Day MA
164.863

Garmin Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Garmin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Garmin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Garmin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Garmin. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Garmin's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Garmin.

Garmin Implied Volatility

    
  30.48  
Garmin's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Garmin stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Garmin's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Garmin stock will not fluctuate a lot when Garmin's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Garmin to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Garmin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Garmin after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 170.49  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Garmin contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Garmin will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.91% per day over the life of the 2024-08-16 option contract. With Garmin trading at USD 170.07, that is roughly USD 3.24 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Garmin's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Garmin options at the current volatility level of 30.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Garmin Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Garmin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Garmin guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Garmin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
150.89152.82187.08
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
101.92112.00124.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.271.401.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Garmin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Garmin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Garmin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Garmin.

Garmin After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Garmin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Garmin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Garmin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Garmin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Garmin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Garmin's historical news coverage. Garmin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 168.56 and 172.42, respectively. We have considered Garmin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
170.07
168.56
Downside
170.49
After-hype Price
172.42
Upside
Garmin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Garmin is based on 3 months time horizon.

Garmin Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Garmin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Garmin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Garmin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
1.93
  0.42 
  0.22 
9 Events / Month
9 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
170.07
170.49
0.25 
148.46  
Notes

Garmin Hype Timeline

Garmin is currently traded for 170.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Garmin is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 170.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 148.46%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Garmin is about 277.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 169.85. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.23 B. Net Income was 1.29 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.81 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Garmin Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Garmin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Garmin guide.

Garmin Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Garmin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Garmin's future price movements. Getting to know how Garmin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Garmin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VNTVontier Corp 0.31 10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.27 (2.21) 5.93 
TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated(6.75)12 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.17 (1.87) 11.68 
ESEESCO Technologies(3.14)10 per month 1.48  0.11  2.85 (2.51) 9.03 
MKSIMKS Instruments 0.06 11 per month 2.83  0  4.71 (3.78) 15.14 
STSensata Technologies Holding(0.23)10 per month 1.50  0.08  2.49 (2.48) 10.19 
FTVFortive Corp 0.46 12 per month 0.00 (0.15) 1.40 (2.03) 6.85 
COHRCoherent 1.55 11 per month 2.17  0.12  4.19 (3.60) 28.86 
CGNXCognex(0.32)8 per month 1.47  0.15  3.10 (2.23) 12.44 
NOVTNovanta 1.13 9 per month 1.63  0.02  3.76 (2.90) 9.67 
TRMBTrimble(0.21)12 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.96 (2.12) 9.48 
VPGVishay Precision Group(0.52)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.10 (2.55) 7.97 

Garmin Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Garmin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Garmin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Garmin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Garmin Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Garmin stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Garmin, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Garmin based on analysis of Garmin hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Garmin's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Garmin's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02270.03820.03440.021
Price To Sales Ratio4.713.664.25.36

Story Coverage note for Garmin

The number of cover stories for Garmin depends on current market conditions and Garmin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Garmin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Garmin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Garmin Short Properties

Garmin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Garmin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Garmin often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Garmin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garmin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding192.1 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Garmin Stock

When determining whether Garmin offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Garmin's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Garmin Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Garmin Stock:
Check out Garmin Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Garmin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Garmin guide.
You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Consumer Electronics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Garmin. If investors know Garmin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Garmin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.362
Dividend Share
2.92
Earnings Share
7.09
Revenue Per Share
28.525
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
The market value of Garmin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Garmin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Garmin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Garmin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Garmin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Garmin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Garmin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Garmin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Garmin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.