Groupon Stock Price Prediction
| GRPN Stock | USD 9.77 1.04 9.62% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
32
Oversold | Overbought |
Groupon stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Groupon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Groupon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Groupon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Groupon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Groupon, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Groupon's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.08) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.34 | Wall Street Target Price 18.17 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Groupon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Groupon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Groupon over a specific investment horizon. Using Groupon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Groupon from the perspective of Groupon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Groupon using Groupon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Groupon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Groupon's stock price.
Groupon Implied Volatility | 191.9 |
Groupon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Groupon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Groupon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Groupon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Groupon's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Groupon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Groupon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Groupon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Groupon after-hype prediction price | USD 9.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Groupon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Groupon will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 11.99% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Groupon trading at USD 9.77, that is roughly USD 1.17 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Groupon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Groupon options at the current volatility level of 191.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Groupon |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Groupon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Groupon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Groupon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Groupon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Groupon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Groupon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Groupon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Groupon's historical news coverage. Groupon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.94 and 15.72, respectively. We have considered Groupon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Groupon is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Groupon is based on 3 months time horizon.
Groupon Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Groupon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Groupon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Groupon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 5.89 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.77 | 9.83 | 0.61 |
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Groupon Hype Timeline
Groupon is currently traded for 9.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Groupon is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.61%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Groupon is about 391.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.62. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Groupon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Groupon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Groupon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Groupon's future price movements. Getting to know how Groupon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Groupon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNAP | Snap Inc | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.71 | (4.49) | 42.05 | |
| TWLO | Twilio Inc | 1.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.45 | (3.89) | 19.67 | |
| SPOT | Spotify Technology SA | (7.87) | 10 per month | 1.06 | 0.26 | 3.84 | (2.53) | 11.54 | |
| BIDU | Baidu Inc | 0.11 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.41 | (3.23) | 15.55 | |
| PINS | 0.70 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.19 | (3.35) | 15.23 | ||
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Class A | 2.47 | 6 per month | 2.01 | 0.05 | 2.27 | (2.76) | 9.63 | |
| META | Meta Platforms | (10.03) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.14 | 3.27 | (2.28) | 24.74 | |
| YELP | Yelp Inc | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.23 | (2.66) | 16.62 | |
| TCEHY | Tencent Holdings Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.66 | 0.01 | 3.19 | (2.96) | 9.52 |
Groupon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Groupon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Groupon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Groupon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Groupon Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Groupon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Groupon, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Groupon based on analysis of Groupon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Groupon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Groupon's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.1 | 0.11 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.78 | 0.74 |
Story Coverage note for Groupon
The number of cover stories for Groupon depends on current market conditions and Groupon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Groupon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Groupon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Groupon Short Properties
Groupon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Groupon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Groupon often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Groupon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Groupon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.6 M |
Check out Groupon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Groupon Stock analysis
When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | Earnings Share (1.77) | Revenue Per Share 16.481 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.