Home Depot Stock Future Price Prediction

HD
 Stock
  

USD 282.76  7.63  2.63%   

Home Depot stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Home Depot shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Home Depot's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Home Depot and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Home Depot's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Home Depot, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Home Depot Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Home Depot based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Home Depot stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Home Depot over a specific investment horizon.Using Home Depot hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Home Depot from the perspective of Home Depot response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Home Depot using Home Depot's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Home Depot using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Home Depot's stock price.

Home Depot Implied Volatility

    
  44.99  
Home Depot's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Home Depot stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Home Depot's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Home Depot stock will not fluctuate a lot when Home Depot's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Home Depot. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Home Depot to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Home Depot because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Home Depot after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 285.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Home Depot contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Home Depot will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.81% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Home Depot trading at $282.76, that is roughly $7.95. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Home Depot's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Home Depot options at the current volatility level of 44.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Home Depot in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
256.95353.06354.84
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
315.00409.58470.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Home Depot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Home Depot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Home Depot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Home Depot.

Home Depot After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Home Depot at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Home Depot or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Home Depot, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Home Depot Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Home Depot's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Home Depot's historical news coverage. Home Depot's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 283.77 and 287.33, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 282.76
283.77
Downside
285.55
After-hype Price
287.33
Upside
Home Depot is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Home Depot is based on 3 months time horizon.

Home Depot Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Home Depot is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Home Depot backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Home Depot, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.05  1.78  0.05   0.10  9 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
282.76285.550.02 
167.92  

Home Depot Hype Timeline

As of October 7, 2022 Home Depot is listed for 282.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Home Depot is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 285.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 167.92%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Home Depot is about 84.76% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 282.86. The company generated the yearly revenue of 152.57 B. Reported Net Income was 16.52 B with gross profit of 50.83 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Please check Home Depot Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Home Depot Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Home Depot's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Home Depot's future price movements. Getting to know how Home Depot rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Home Depot may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc 2.10 11 per month 2.43  0.06  4.00 (3.62)  17.42 

Home Depot Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Home Depot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Home Depot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Home Depot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Home Depot Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Home Depot stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Home Depot, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Home Depot based on analysis of Home Depot hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Home Depot's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Home Depot's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Home Depot

The number of cover stories for Home Depot depends on current market conditions and Home Depot's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Home Depot is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Home Depot's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Home Depot Short Properties

Home Depot's future price predictability will typically decrease when Home Depot's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Home Depot often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Home Depot's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Depot's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.76%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate6.15
Short Percent Of Float0.76%
Float Shares1.03B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.04M
Shares Short Prior Month9.48M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.38M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.12%
Please check Home Depot Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Home Depot information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Depot's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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Is Home Depot's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home Depot will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home Depot that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Home Depot value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.