Home Federal Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| HFBL Stock | USD 12.00 0.02 0.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Home Federal Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Home Federal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Home Federal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Home Federal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Home Federal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Home Federal Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Home Federal's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Home Federal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Home stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Home Federal over a specific investment horizon. Using Home Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Home Federal Bancorp from the perspective of Home Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Home Federal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Home Federal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Home because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Home Federal after-hype prediction price | USD 12.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Home |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Federal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Home Federal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Home Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Home Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Home Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Home Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Home Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Home Federal's historical news coverage. Home Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.90 and 14.26, respectively. We have considered Home Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Home Federal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Home Federal Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Home Federal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Home Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Home Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Home Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.18 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.00 | 12.08 | 0.67 |
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Home Federal Hype Timeline
Home Federal Bancorp is currently traded for 12.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Home is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 12.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.67%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Home Federal is about 908.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.94. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 23.45 M. Net Income was 5.7 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 20.5 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Home Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Home Federal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Home Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Home Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Home Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Home Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (0.61) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.72 | (3.57) | 11.98 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.98 | (4.92) | 12.27 |
Home Federal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Home price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Home using various technical indicators. When you analyze Home charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Home Federal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Home Federal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Home Federal Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Home Federal based on analysis of Home Federal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Home Federal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Home Federal's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0361 | 0.0325 | 0.0341 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.81 | 2.08 | 1.98 |
Story Coverage note for Home Federal
The number of cover stories for Home Federal depends on current market conditions and Home Federal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Home Federal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Home Federal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Home Federal Short Properties
Home Federal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Home Federal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Home Federal Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Home Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.3 M |
Check out Home Federal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Home Federal Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Federal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Home Stock analysis
When running Home Federal's price analysis, check to measure Home Federal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Federal is operating at the current time. Most of Home Federal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Federal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Federal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Federal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Federal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Federal. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Dividend Share 0.49 | Earnings Share 1.48 | Revenue Per Share 7.482 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of Home Federal Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.