Hormel Foods Stock Price Prediction
| HRL Stock | USD 33.91 0.02 0.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
67
Oversold | Overbought |
Hormel Foods stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hormel Foods shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hormel Foods' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hormel Foods and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hormel Foods' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hormel Foods, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hormel Foods' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.004 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.58 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.68 | Wall Street Target Price 32.29 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.33 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hormel Foods based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hormel stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hormel Foods over a specific investment horizon. Using Hormel Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hormel Foods from the perspective of Hormel Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hormel Foods using Hormel Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hormel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hormel Foods' stock price.
Hormel Foods Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Hormel Foods' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hormel. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hormel Foods stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hormel Foods may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hormel Foods and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hormel Foods with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.7355 | Short Percent 0.0186 | Short Ratio 2.82 | Shares Short Prior Month 10 M | 50 Day MA 32.7728 |
Hormel Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hormel Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hormel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hormel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hormel Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hormel Foods' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hormel Foods.
Hormel Foods Implied Volatility | 31.32 |
Hormel Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hormel Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hormel Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hormel Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hormel Foods' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hormel Foods. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hormel Foods to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hormel because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hormel Foods after-hype prediction price | USD 33.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hormel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hormel Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.96% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Hormel Foods trading at USD 33.91, that is roughly USD 0.66 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hormel Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hormel Foods options at the current volatility level of 31.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Hormel |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hormel Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hormel Foods After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hormel Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hormel Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hormel Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hormel Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hormel Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hormel Foods' historical news coverage. Hormel Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.52 and 36.06, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hormel Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hormel Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hormel Foods Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hormel Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hormel Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hormel Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.26 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.91 | 33.79 | 0.35 |
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Hormel Foods Hype Timeline
On the 16th of April 2024 Hormel Foods is traded for 33.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Hormel is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 33.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Hormel Foods is about 837.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.96. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Hormel Foods was currently reported as 14.33. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.96. Hormel Foods last dividend was issued on the 12th of April 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 10th of February 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Hormel Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hormel Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hormel Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hormel Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Hormel Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hormel Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SENEB | Seneca Foods Corp | 0.00 | 3 per month | 1.85 | 0.06 | 4.08 | (3.57) | 15.16 | |
| CENT | Central Garden Pet | 0.17 | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.20 | (2.99) | 10.31 | |
| CENTA | Central Garden Pet | 0.91 | 11 per month | 1.72 | (0.02) | 3.18 | (2.92) | 10.17 | |
| ARZTY | Aryzta AG PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.41 | (3.23) | 10.62 |
Hormel Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hormel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hormel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hormel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hormel Foods Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hormel Foods stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hormel Foods, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hormel Foods based on analysis of Hormel Foods hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hormel Foods's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hormel Foods's related companies. | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0183 | 0.0338 | 0.0225 | 0.0152 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.77 | 1.45 | 2.04 | 2.14 |
Story Coverage note for Hormel Foods
The number of cover stories for Hormel Foods depends on current market conditions and Hormel Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hormel Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hormel Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hormel Foods Short Properties
Hormel Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Hormel Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hormel Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hormel Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hormel Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 549 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 753.2 M |
Check out Hormel Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hormel Stock please use our How to buy in Hormel Stock guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Hormel Stock analysis
When running Hormel Foods' price analysis, check to measure Hormel Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hormel Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Hormel Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hormel Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hormel Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hormel Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hormel Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hormel Foods. If investors know Hormel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hormel Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.004 | Dividend Share 1.108 | Earnings Share 1.45 | Revenue Per Share 22.203 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
The market value of Hormel Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hormel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hormel Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hormel Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hormel Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hormel Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hormel Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hormel Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hormel Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.