International Stock Future Price Prediction

IBM
 Stock
  

USD 118.81  2.82  2.32%   

International Business stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of International Business shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of International Business' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of International Business and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from International Business' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with International Business Machines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of International Business based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The International stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on International Business over a specific investment horizon.Using International Business hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of International Business Machines from the perspective of International Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards International Business using International Business' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards International using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of International Business' stock price.

International Business Implied Volatility

    
  28.65  
International Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of International Business Machines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if International Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that International Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when International Business' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in International Business. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in International Business to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying International because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

International Business after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 118.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current International contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that International Business Machines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.79% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With International Business trading at $118.81, that is roughly $2.13. If you think that the market is fully incorporating International Business' daily price movement you should consider acquiring International Business Machines options at the current volatility level of 28.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of International Business in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
106.93135.98137.24
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
124.00148.11170.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Business. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Business' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Business' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in International Business.

International Business After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of International Business at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in International Business or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of International Business, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

International Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting International Business' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on International Business' historical news coverage. International Business' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.26 and 119.78, respectively. We have considered International Business' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 118.81
117.26
Downside
118.52
After-hype Price
119.78
Upside
International Business is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of International Business is based on 3 months time horizon.

International Business Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as International Business is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading International Business backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with International Business, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20  1.26   0.29   0.08  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
118.81118.520.24 
85.71  

International Business Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of October International Business is traded for 118.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. International is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 118.52. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 85.71%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.24% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on International Business is about 325.16% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 118.89. About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35. International Business recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of August 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 4th of November 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Please see International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

International Business Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to International Business' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict International Business' future price movements. Getting to know how International Business rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how International Business may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NAUBFNational Australia B 0.00 10 per month 1.63  0.05  4.17 (2.91)  19.99 
RYRoyal Bank 1.16 8 per month 0.00 (0.001)  2.19 (2.23)  8.53 
WFCWells Fargo 0.91 2 per month 1.60  0.09  2.35 (2.63)  11.23 
BIPBrookfield Infrastructure Partners(0.01) 1 per month 0.00  0.06  1.85 (2.80)  6.75 
CCitigroup(0.76) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0152)  2.11 (2.90)  17.60 
ANZBYAustralia And New 0.33 6 per month 0.00  0.0294  3.03 (2.91)  10.91 
ACGLArch Capital Grp 0.57 3 per month 1.68  0.1  2.56 (3.29)  6.07 
HIGHartford Financial Services 0.90 10 per month 0.00  0.0345  2.19 (2.27)  5.49 

International Business Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine International price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for International using various technical indicators. When you analyze International charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About International Business Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of International Business stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as International Business Machines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of International Business based on analysis of International Business hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to International Business's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to International Business's related companies.

Story Coverage note for International Business

The number of cover stories for International Business depends on current market conditions and International Business' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that International Business is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about International Business' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

International Business Short Properties

International Business' future price predictability will typically decrease when International Business' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of International Business Machines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential International Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date9th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out2.64%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate6.58
Short Percent Of Float2.64%
Float Shares901.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.62M
Shares Short Prior Month23.11M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.59M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Please see International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the International Business information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other International Business' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for International Stock analysis

When running International Business price analysis, check to measure International Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy International Business is operating at the current time. Most of International Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of International Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move International Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of International Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is International Business' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of International Business. If investors know International will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about International Business listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of International Business is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of International that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of International Business' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is International Business' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because International Business' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect International Business' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between International Business' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine International Business value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Business' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.