International Business Machines Stock Price Prediction

IBM Stock  USD 181.47  1.63  0.89%   
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of International Business' share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling International Business, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

47

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
International Business stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of International Business shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of International Business' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of International Business and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from International Business' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with International Business Machines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting International Business' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.2
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.53
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.1
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.66
Wall Street Target Price
188.24
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of International Business based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The International stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on International Business over a specific investment horizon. Using International Business hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of International Business Machines from the perspective of International Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards International Business using International Business' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards International using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of International Business' stock price.

International Business Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in International Business' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards International. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of International Business stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long International Business may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about International Business and may potentially protect profits, hedge International Business with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
159.9539
Short Percent
0.0254
Short Ratio
4.67
Shares Short Prior Month
22 M
50 Day MA
188.3998

International Business Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to International Business' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in International. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding International can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around International Business Machines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of International Business' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about International Business.

International Business Implied Volatility

    
  43.11  
International Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of International Business Machines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if International Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that International Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when International Business' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in International Business. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in International Business to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying International because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

International Business after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 181.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current International contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that International Business Machines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.69% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With International Business trading at USD 181.47, that is roughly USD 4.89 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating International Business' daily price movement you should consider acquiring International Business Machines options at the current volatility level of 43.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
163.32183.27184.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
183.04184.75186.46
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
124.99137.35152.46
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.461.481.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Business. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Business' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Business' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in International Business.

International Business After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of International Business at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in International Business or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of International Business, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

International Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting International Business' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on International Business' historical news coverage. International Business' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.76 and 183.18, respectively. We have considered International Business' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
181.47
179.76
Downside
181.47
After-hype Price
183.18
Upside
International Business is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of International Business is based on 3 months time horizon.

International Business Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as International Business is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading International Business backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with International Business, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.72
  0.15 
  0.01 
10 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
181.47
181.47
0.00 
124.64  
Notes

International Business Hype Timeline

On the 19th of April International Business is traded for 181.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. International is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 124.64%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on International Business is about 3739.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.48. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.16. International Business last dividend was issued on the 8th of February 2024. The entity had 1046:1000 split on the 4th of November 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

International Business Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to International Business' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict International Business' future price movements. Getting to know how International Business' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how International Business may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IIIInformation Services Group(0.07)9 per month 0.00 (0.13) 3.66 (3.93) 12.37 
HBCPHome Bancorp(0.33)10 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.72 (3.33) 11.98 
CRAICRA International 1.36 12 per month 1.04  0.18  2.80 (1.69) 15.07 
AQUIAquagold International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.16  0.00  0.00  25.00 
MSTSXMorningstar Unconstrained Allocation(0.26)3 per month 0.64 (0.05) 0.98 (1.06) 3.20 
LBHIXThrivent High Yield 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.32) 0.48 (0.48) 1.21 
VIASPVia Renewables 0.00 0 per month 2.28  0.04  3.60 (3.74) 13.41 
RRTLXT Rowe Price(0.40)1 per month 0.31 (0.15) 0.51 (0.59) 1.46 
OSHDFOshidori International Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
70082LAB3US70082LAB36 0.16 26 per month 0.00 (0.10) 1.52 (1.89) 17.21 

International Business Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine International price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for International using various technical indicators. When you analyze International charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About International Business Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of International Business stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as International Business Machines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of International Business based on analysis of International Business hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to International Business's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to International Business's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0490.04680.04050.022
Price To Sales Ratio2.092.12.412.53

Story Coverage note for International Business

The number of cover stories for International Business depends on current market conditions and International Business' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that International Business is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about International Business' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

International Business Short Properties

International Business' future price predictability will typically decrease when International Business' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of International Business Machines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential International Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding922.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments13.5 B
When determining whether International Business is a strong investment it is important to analyze International Business' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact International Business' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding International Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the International Business information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other International Business' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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Is International Business' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of International Business. If investors know International will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about International Business listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.2
Dividend Share
6.63
Earnings Share
8.16
Revenue Per Share
67.888
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.041
The market value of International Business is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of International that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of International Business' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is International Business' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because International Business' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect International Business' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between International Business' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if International Business is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Business' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.