Icf International Stock Price Prediction
| ICFI Stock | USD 141.98 0.12 0.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
ICF International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ICF International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ICF International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ICF International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ICF International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ICF International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ICF International's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.472 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.49 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.75 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.65 | Wall Street Target Price 172 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ICF International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ICF stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ICF International over a specific investment horizon. Using ICF International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ICF International from the perspective of ICF International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ICF International using ICF International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ICF using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ICF International's stock price.
ICF International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ICF International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ICF. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ICF International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ICF International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ICF International and may potentially protect profits, hedge ICF International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 134.6874 | Short Percent 0.0123 | Short Ratio 2.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 227.1 K | 50 Day MA 149.1834 |
ICF International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ICF International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ICF. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ICF can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ICF International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ICF International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ICF International.
ICF International Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
ICF International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ICF International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ICF International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ICF International stock will not fluctuate a lot when ICF International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ICF International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ICF International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ICF because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ICF International after-hype prediction price | USD 141.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ICF contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ICF International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With ICF International trading at USD 141.98, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ICF International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ICF International options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ICF |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ICF International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ICF International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ICF International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ICF International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ICF International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ICF International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ICF International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ICF International's historical news coverage. ICF International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 140.78 and 143.16, respectively. We have considered ICF International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ICF International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ICF International is based on 3 months time horizon.
ICF International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ICF International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ICF International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ICF International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.19 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
141.98 | 141.97 | 0.01 |
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ICF International Hype Timeline
ICF International is currently traded for 141.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. ICF is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 141.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 121.43%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on ICF International is about 292.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 141.98. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of ICF International was currently reported as 48.69. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. ICF International last dividend was issued on the 21st of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out ICF International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ICF International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ICF International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ICF International's future price movements. Getting to know how ICF International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ICF International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FC | Franklin Covey | (1.85) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.91 | (4.23) | 10.76 | |
| FCN | FTI Consulting | 0.44 | 10 per month | 1.28 | 0.01 | 1.74 | (2.60) | 20.25 | |
| FORR | Forrester Research | (0.10) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.12 | (5.03) | 14.18 | |
| RGP | Resources Connection | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.81 | (4.05) | 12.24 |
ICF International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ICF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ICF using various technical indicators. When you analyze ICF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ICF International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ICF International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ICF International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ICF International based on analysis of ICF International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ICF International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ICF International's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00546 | 0.005658 | 0.004179 | 0.006368 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.25 | 1.05 | 1.28 | 1.35 |
Story Coverage note for ICF International
The number of cover stories for ICF International depends on current market conditions and ICF International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ICF International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ICF International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ICF International Short Properties
ICF International's future price predictability will typically decrease when ICF International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ICF International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ICF International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ICF International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.4 M |
Check out ICF International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in ICF Stock please use our How to Invest in ICF International guide.Note that the ICF International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ICF International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for ICF Stock analysis
When running ICF International's price analysis, check to measure ICF International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ICF International is operating at the current time. Most of ICF International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ICF International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ICF International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ICF International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ICF International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ICF International. If investors know ICF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ICF International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.472 | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 4.34 | Revenue Per Share 104.416 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 |
The market value of ICF International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ICF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ICF International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ICF International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ICF International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ICF International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ICF International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ICF International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ICF International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.