ICON Stock Price Prediction
| ICLR Stock | USD 250.41 1.46 0.58% |
ICON PLC stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ICON PLC shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ICON PLC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ICON PLC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ICON PLC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ICON PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.007) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.74 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.64 | Wall Street Target Price 279.57 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ICON PLC based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ICON stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ICON PLC over a specific investment horizon. Using ICON PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ICON PLC from the perspective of ICON PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ICON PLC using ICON PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ICON using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ICON PLC's stock price.
ICON PLC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ICON PLC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ICON. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ICON PLC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ICON PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ICON PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge ICON PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 225.3099 | Short Percent 0.0275 | Short Ratio 4.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.6 M | 50 Day MA 254.0752 |
ICON PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ICON PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ICON. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ICON can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ICON PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ICON PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ICON PLC.
ICON PLC Implied Volatility | 27.8 |
ICON PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ICON PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ICON PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ICON PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when ICON PLC's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ICON PLC. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ICON PLC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ICON because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ICON PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 250.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ICON contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ICON PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.74% per day over the life of the 2023-10-20 option contract. With ICON PLC trading at USD250.41, that is roughly USD4.35. If you think that the market is fully incorporating ICON PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ICON PLC options at the current volatility level of 27.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ICON |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ICON PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ICON PLC in the context of predictive analytics.
ICON PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ICON PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ICON PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ICON PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ICON PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ICON PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ICON PLC's historical news coverage. ICON PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 248.73 and 252.09, respectively. We have considered ICON PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ICON PLC is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ICON PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
ICON PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as ICON PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ICON PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ICON PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
| 0.08 | 1.68 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
| 250.41 | 250.41 | 0.00 |
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ICON PLC Hype Timeline
ICON PLC is currently traded for 250.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.44 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. ICON expected not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of about 30.55%. The immediate return on the next newsis expected to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to ICON PLC is about 7200.0%. The volatility of related hype on ICON PLC is about 7200.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 250.41. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ICON PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.33. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.94. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. ICON PLC had 2:1 split on the 13th of August 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out ICON PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ICON Stock, please use our How to Invest in ICON PLC guide.ICON PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ICON PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ICON PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how ICON PLC rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ICON PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EQ | Equillium | (0.02) | 7 per month | 2.85 | 0.0056 | 5.63 | (5.33) | 17.44 | |
| KA | Kineta Inc | (0.02) | 5 per month | 4.29 | 0.0122 | 8.56 | (6.76) | 24.40 | |
| ME | 23Andme Holding Co | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.83 | (8.53) | 23.08 | |
| YS | YS Biopharma Co | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.65 | (9.09) | 70.08 | |
| DMAC | DiaMedica Therapeutics | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.34 | (8.53) | 18.24 | |
| VACC | Vaccitech PLC ADR | 0.03 | 1 per month | 2.11 | 0.08 | 4.55 | (4.63) | 16.62 | |
| DMTK | DermTech | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.38 | (8.37) | 32.34 | |
| VALN | Valneva SE ADR | (0.08) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.91 | (3.67) | 14.41 | |
| VANI | Vivani Medical | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.62 | (7.14) | 16.44 |
ICON PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ICON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ICON using various technical indicators. When you analyze ICON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ICON PLC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ICON PLC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ICON PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ICON PLC based on analysis of ICON PLC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ICON PLC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ICON PLC's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Book Value per Share | 120.2 | 104.23 | 112.46 | Asset Turnover | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.61 |
Story Coverage note for ICON PLC
The number of cover stories for ICON PLC depends on current market conditions and ICON PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ICON PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ICON PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ICON PLC Short Properties
ICON PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when ICON PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ICON PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ICON PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ICON PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 290.5 M |
Check out ICON PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ICON Stock, please use our How to Invest in ICON PLC guide. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for ICON Stock analysis
When running ICON PLC's price analysis, check to measure ICON PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ICON PLC is operating at the current time. Most of ICON PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ICON PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ICON PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ICON PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ICON PLC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ICON PLC. If investors know ICON will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ICON PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.007) | Earnings Share 5.94 | Revenue Per Share 96.66 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.044 | Return On Assets 0.0351 |
The market value of ICON PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ICON that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ICON PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ICON PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ICON PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ICON PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ICON PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ICON PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ICON PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.