Jakks Pacific Stock Price Prediction
| JAKK Stock | USD 22.43 0.04 0.18% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
JAKKS Pacific stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of JAKKS Pacific shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of JAKKS Pacific's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from JAKKS Pacific's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with JAKKS Pacific, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting JAKKS Pacific's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.53 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.24) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.27 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.27 | Wall Street Target Price 38 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of JAKKS Pacific based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The JAKKS stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on JAKKS Pacific over a specific investment horizon. Using JAKKS Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JAKKS Pacific from the perspective of JAKKS Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards JAKKS Pacific using JAKKS Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards JAKKS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of JAKKS Pacific's stock price.
JAKKS Pacific Implied Volatility | 81.19 |
JAKKS Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of JAKKS Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if JAKKS Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that JAKKS Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when JAKKS Pacific's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in JAKKS Pacific. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in JAKKS Pacific to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying JAKKS because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
JAKKS Pacific after-hype prediction price | USD 22.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
JAKKS |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JAKKS Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
JAKKS Pacific After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of JAKKS Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JAKKS Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of JAKKS Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
JAKKS Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting JAKKS Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JAKKS Pacific's historical news coverage. JAKKS Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.48 and 26.62, respectively. We have considered JAKKS Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
JAKKS Pacific is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JAKKS Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.
JAKKS Pacific Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as JAKKS Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JAKKS Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JAKKS Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 4.61 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
22.43 | 22.05 | 1.69 |
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JAKKS Pacific Hype Timeline
JAKKS Pacific is currently traded for 22.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. JAKKS is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 22.05. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.69%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.4%. The volatility of related hype on JAKKS Pacific is about 1666.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.32. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. JAKKS Pacific has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of June 2013. The firm had 1:10 split on the 10th of July 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out JAKKS Pacific Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.JAKKS Pacific Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to JAKKS Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JAKKS Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how JAKKS Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JAKKS Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FUN | Cedar Fair LP | (0.46) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.18 | (1.98) | 6.91 | |
| SIX | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.37) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.93 | (2.59) | 7.05 | |
| LEAT | Leatt Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.93 | (4.38) | 16.57 |
JAKKS Pacific Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JAKKS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JAKKS using various technical indicators. When you analyze JAKKS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About JAKKS Pacific Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of JAKKS Pacific stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as JAKKS Pacific, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific based on analysis of JAKKS Pacific hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to JAKKS Pacific's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to JAKKS Pacific's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0186 | 0.0141 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.5 | 0.67 |
Story Coverage note for JAKKS Pacific
The number of cover stories for JAKKS Pacific depends on current market conditions and JAKKS Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JAKKS Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JAKKS Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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JAKKS Pacific Short Properties
JAKKS Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when JAKKS Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of JAKKS Pacific often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential JAKKS Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JAKKS Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 72.6 M |
Check out JAKKS Pacific Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy JAKKS Stock please use our How to buy in JAKKS Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for JAKKS Stock analysis
When running JAKKS Pacific's price analysis, check to measure JAKKS Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JAKKS Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of JAKKS Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JAKKS Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JAKKS Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JAKKS Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JAKKS Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JAKKS Pacific. If investors know JAKKS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JAKKS Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.53 | Earnings Share 3.48 | Revenue Per Share 71.427 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.0919 |
The market value of JAKKS Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JAKKS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JAKKS Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JAKKS Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JAKKS Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JAKKS Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JAKKS Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JAKKS Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JAKKS Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.