Jabil Circuit Stock Price Prediction

JBL Stock  USD 113.19  1.40  1.25%   
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Jabil Circuit's share price is approaching 38. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Jabil Circuit, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

38

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Jabil Circuit's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Jabil Circuit and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Jabil Circuit's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Jabil Circuit, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Jabil Circuit's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.38
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.56
Wall Street Target Price
141.02
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.66
Using Jabil Circuit hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jabil Circuit from the perspective of Jabil Circuit response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jabil Circuit using Jabil Circuit's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jabil using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jabil Circuit's stock price.

Jabil Circuit Short Interest

An investor who is long Jabil Circuit may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Jabil Circuit and may potentially protect profits, hedge Jabil Circuit with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
126.308
Short Percent
0.0524
Short Ratio
3.22
Shares Short Prior Month
4.7 M
50 Day MA
119.6802

Jabil Circuit Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Jabil Circuit's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Jabil. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jabil can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jabil Circuit. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Jabil Circuit's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Jabil Circuit.

Jabil Circuit Implied Volatility

    
  29.91  
Jabil Circuit's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jabil Circuit stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jabil Circuit's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jabil Circuit stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jabil Circuit's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Jabil Circuit to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Jabil because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Jabil Circuit after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 113.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jabil contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jabil Circuit will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.87% per day over the life of the 2024-07-19 option contract. With Jabil Circuit trading at USD 113.19, that is roughly USD 2.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jabil Circuit's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jabil Circuit options at the current volatility level of 29.91%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Jabil Circuit Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jabil Stock please use our How to buy in Jabil Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jabil Circuit's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
101.87122.08124.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
114.82117.26119.70
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
129.48142.29157.94
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.062.222.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jabil Circuit. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jabil Circuit's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jabil Circuit's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Jabil Circuit.

Jabil Circuit After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Jabil Circuit at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jabil Circuit or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jabil Circuit, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Jabil Circuit Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Jabil Circuit's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jabil Circuit's historical news coverage. Jabil Circuit's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 110.94 and 115.82, respectively. We have considered Jabil Circuit's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
113.19
110.94
Downside
113.38
After-hype Price
115.82
Upside
Jabil Circuit is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jabil Circuit is based on 3 months time horizon.

Jabil Circuit Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jabil Circuit is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jabil Circuit backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jabil Circuit, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20 
2.44
  0.19 
  0.02 
11 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
113.19
113.38
0.17 
251.55  
Notes

Jabil Circuit Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of June Jabil Circuit is traded for 113.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Jabil is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 113.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Jabil Circuit is about 2033.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 113.17. The company reported the last year's revenue of 34.7 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 818 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.87 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Jabil Circuit Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jabil Stock please use our How to buy in Jabil Stock guide.

Jabil Circuit Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Jabil Circuit's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jabil Circuit's future price movements. Getting to know how Jabil Circuit's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jabil Circuit may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Jabil Circuit Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Jabil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jabil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jabil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Jabil Circuit Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Jabil Circuit stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Jabil Circuit, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Jabil Circuit based on analysis of Jabil Circuit hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Jabil Circuit's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Jabil Circuit's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0029570.0034010.003231
Price To Sales Ratio0.440.50.65

Story Coverage note for Jabil Circuit

The number of cover stories for Jabil Circuit depends on current market conditions and Jabil Circuit's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jabil Circuit is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jabil Circuit's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Jabil Circuit Short Properties

Jabil Circuit's future price predictability will typically decrease when Jabil Circuit's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jabil Circuit often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jabil Circuit's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jabil Circuit's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding135.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.8 B

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Jabil Stock

When determining whether Jabil Circuit is a strong investment it is important to analyze Jabil Circuit's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Jabil Circuit's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Jabil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Jabil Circuit Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Jabil Stock please use our How to buy in Jabil Stock guide.
You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jabil Circuit. If investors know Jabil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jabil Circuit listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Dividend Share
0.32
Earnings Share
11.02
Revenue Per Share
240.182
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.20)
The market value of Jabil Circuit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jabil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jabil Circuit's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jabil Circuit's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jabil Circuit's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jabil Circuit's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jabil Circuit's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jabil Circuit is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jabil Circuit's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.