Aurora Stock Future Price Prediction

JG
 Stock
  

USD 0.88  0.0099  1.14%   

Aurora Mobile stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aurora Mobile shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aurora Mobile's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aurora Mobile and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aurora Mobile's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aurora Mobile, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see Aurora Mobile Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aurora Mobile based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aurora stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aurora Mobile over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.16) 
Wall Street Target Price
3.44
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.11) 
Using Aurora Mobile hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurora Mobile from the perspective of Aurora Mobile response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aurora Mobile using Aurora Mobile's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aurora using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aurora Mobile's stock price.

Aurora Mobile Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Aurora Mobile's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aurora Mobile stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aurora Mobile's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aurora Mobile stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aurora Mobile's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aurora Mobile. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aurora Mobile to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aurora because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Aurora Mobile after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Mobile's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aurora Mobile in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.102.015.66
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.016270.814.46
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.075.547.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.820.900.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aurora Mobile. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aurora Mobile's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aurora Mobile's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aurora Mobile.

Aurora Mobile After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aurora Mobile at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurora Mobile or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurora Mobile, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aurora Mobile Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aurora Mobile's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurora Mobile's historical news coverage. Aurora Mobile's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 4.52, respectively. We have considered Aurora Mobile's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 0.88
0.87
After-hype Price
4.52
Upside
Aurora Mobile is very risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurora Mobile is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aurora Mobile Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Aurora Mobile is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurora Mobile backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurora Mobile, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.07  3.67  0.00   0.04  0 Events / Month0 Events / MonthUncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.880.870.00 
0.00  

Aurora Mobile Hype Timeline

As of December 1, 2022 Aurora Mobile is listed for 0.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Aurora forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of insignificant. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Aurora Mobile is about 655.36%. The volatility of related hype on Aurora Mobile is about 655.36% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 0.92. About 17.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Aurora Mobile was currently reported as 1.36. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.18. Aurora Mobile had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Please see Aurora Mobile Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Aurora Mobile Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aurora Mobile's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurora Mobile's future price movements. Getting to know how Aurora Mobile rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurora Mobile may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
KOCoca-Cola Co 0.56 4 per month 1.17 (0.0197)  2.06 (1.59)  5.09 

Aurora Mobile Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aurora price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurora using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurora charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Aurora Mobile Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Aurora Mobile stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aurora Mobile, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aurora Mobile based on analysis of Aurora Mobile hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aurora Mobile's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aurora Mobile's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Aurora Mobile

The number of cover stories for Aurora Mobile depends on current market conditions and Aurora Mobile's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurora Mobile is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurora Mobile's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aurora Mobile Short Properties

Aurora Mobile's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurora Mobile's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurora Mobile often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurora Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding116124250.00
DescriptionAurora Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile app developer service provider in China. The company provides push notification, instant messaging, analytics, sharing and short message service, one-click verification, and other services. Its vertical applications have expanded to market intelligenc
Cash And Short Term Investments120552000.00
Please see Aurora Mobile Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aurora Mobile information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aurora Mobile's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Aurora Stock analysis

When running Aurora Mobile price analysis, check to measure Aurora Mobile's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurora Mobile is operating at the current time. Most of Aurora Mobile's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurora Mobile's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurora Mobile's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurora Mobile to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aurora Mobile's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurora Mobile. If investors know Aurora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurora Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
104.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.11) 
Return On Assets
(0.14) 
Return On Equity
(0.51) 
The market value of Aurora Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurora Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurora Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurora Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurora Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aurora Mobile value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.