Kar Auction Services Stock Price Prediction
| KAR Stock | USD 17.01 0.02 0.12% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
KAR Auction Services stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of KAR Auction shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of KAR Auction's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of KAR Auction and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from KAR Auction's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with KAR Auction Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting KAR Auction's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1 | Wall Street Target Price 19.2 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of KAR Auction based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The KAR stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on KAR Auction over a specific investment horizon. Using KAR Auction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of KAR Auction Services from the perspective of KAR Auction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards KAR Auction using KAR Auction's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards KAR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of KAR Auction's stock price.
KAR Auction Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in KAR Auction's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards KAR. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of KAR Auction stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long KAR Auction may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about KAR Auction and may potentially protect profits, hedge KAR Auction with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 15.15 | Short Percent 0.0514 | Short Ratio 5.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 16.058 |
KAR Auction Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to KAR Auction's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in KAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding KAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around KAR Auction Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of KAR Auction's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about KAR Auction.
KAR Auction Implied Volatility | 45.42 |
KAR Auction's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of KAR Auction Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if KAR Auction's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that KAR Auction stock will not fluctuate a lot when KAR Auction's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in KAR Auction. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in KAR Auction to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying KAR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
KAR Auction after-hype prediction price | USD 16.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
KAR |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KAR Auction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KAR Auction After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of KAR Auction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in KAR Auction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of KAR Auction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
KAR Auction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting KAR Auction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on KAR Auction's historical news coverage. KAR Auction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.35 and 18.57, respectively. We have considered KAR Auction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
KAR Auction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of KAR Auction Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
KAR Auction Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as KAR Auction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading KAR Auction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with KAR Auction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.01 | 16.96 | 0.29 |
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KAR Auction Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April KAR Auction Services is traded for 17.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. KAR is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.96. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on KAR Auction is about 1006.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.06. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.42. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. KAR Auction Services has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.34. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.83. The firm last dividend was issued on the 19th of March 2020. KAR Auction had 2642:1000 split on the 28th of June 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out KAR Auction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.KAR Auction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to KAR Auction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict KAR Auction's future price movements. Getting to know how KAR Auction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how KAR Auction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LZB | La Z Boy Incorporated | 0.76 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.39 | (2.96) | 8.04 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.09 | 3.57 | (2.98) | 11.30 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 2.62 | 9 per month | 2.09 | 0.20 | 5.59 | (3.89) | 20.17 | |
| LEG | Leggett Platt Incorporated | (0.20) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.78 | (3.48) | 14.92 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 0.13 | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.03 | 2.45 | (3.41) | 10.95 | |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International | (0.72) | 8 per month | 1.72 | (0.05) | 2.77 | (2.83) | 6.88 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | (0.57) | 9 per month | 1.65 | 0.06 | 2.75 | (2.70) | 8.02 | |
| LOVE | The Lovesac | (0.59) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.29 | (5.66) | 17.88 |
KAR Auction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine KAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for KAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze KAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About KAR Auction Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of KAR Auction stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as KAR Auction Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of KAR Auction based on analysis of KAR Auction hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to KAR Auction's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to KAR Auction's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002498 | 0.0146 | 0.0275 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.85 | 1.0 | 0.98 |
Story Coverage note for KAR Auction
The number of cover stories for KAR Auction depends on current market conditions and KAR Auction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that KAR Auction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about KAR Auction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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KAR Auction Short Properties
KAR Auction's future price predictability will typically decrease when KAR Auction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of KAR Auction Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential KAR Auction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KAR Auction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.5 M |
Check out KAR Auction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the KAR Auction Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KAR Auction's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for KAR Stock analysis
When running KAR Auction's price analysis, check to measure KAR Auction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KAR Auction is operating at the current time. Most of KAR Auction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KAR Auction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KAR Auction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KAR Auction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is KAR Auction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KAR Auction. If investors know KAR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KAR Auction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share (1.83) | Revenue Per Share 15.079 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets 0.0312 |
The market value of KAR Auction Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KAR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KAR Auction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KAR Auction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KAR Auction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KAR Auction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KAR Auction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KAR Auction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KAR Auction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.