CarMax Stock Future Price Prediction

KMX
 Stock
  

USD 69.36  0.23  0.33%   

CarMax Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of CarMax shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of CarMax's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CarMax and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CarMax's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CarMax Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see CarMax Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of CarMax based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The CarMax stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on CarMax over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.54) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.18
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.97
Wall Street Target Price
75.29
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.39
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.023
Using CarMax hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CarMax Inc from the perspective of CarMax response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CarMax using CarMax's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CarMax using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CarMax's stock price.
CarMax Enterprise Value over EBITDA is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. CarMax reported Enterprise Value over EBITDA of 19.46 in 2021. Gross Margin is likely to rise to 12.48 in 2022, whereas Interest Coverage is likely to drop 16.76 in 2022.

CarMax Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in CarMax's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CarMax. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CarMax stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long CarMax may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CarMax and may potentially protect profits, hedge CarMax with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
88.42
Short Percent
0.11
Short Ratio
5.85
Shares Short Prior Month
14.1 M
50 Day MA
66.67
Shares Short
15.9 M

CarMax Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to CarMax's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in CarMax. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CarMax can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CarMax Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CarMax's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CarMax.

CarMax Implied Volatility

    
  41.15  
CarMax's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CarMax Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CarMax's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CarMax stock will not fluctuate a lot when CarMax's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in CarMax. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CarMax to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CarMax because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

CarMax after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 68.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CarMax contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CarMax Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.57% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With CarMax trading at USD69.36, that is roughly USD1.78. If you think that the market is fully incorporating CarMax's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CarMax Inc options at the current volatility level of 41.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CarMax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CarMax in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
62.4791.6495.90
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
140.00159.30195.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
6.767.337.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CarMax. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CarMax's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CarMax's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CarMax Inc.

CarMax After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CarMax at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CarMax or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CarMax, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CarMax Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CarMax's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CarMax's historical news coverage. CarMax's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.66 and 73.18, respectively. We have considered CarMax's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 69.36
68.92
After-hype Price
73.18
Upside
CarMax is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CarMax Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

CarMax Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as CarMax is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CarMax backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CarMax, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22  4.25  0.26    0.12  5 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
69.3668.920.71 
354.17  

CarMax Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of December CarMax Inc is traded for 69.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. CarMax is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 68.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.71% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on CarMax is about 793.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 69.24. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.95. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. CarMax Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of March 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 5 days.
Please see CarMax Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

CarMax Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CarMax's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CarMax's future price movements. Getting to know how CarMax rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CarMax may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ABGAsbury Automotive Group 2.41 7 per month 3.27  0.005  3.84 (6.68)  13.74 
CARSCars Inc(0.41) 9 per month 2.66  0.05  5.07 (4.65)  14.48 
CRMTAmericas Car-Mart(1.62) 3 per month 0.00 (0.05)  4.48 (5.04)  16.95 
CWHCamping World Holdings(1.15) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0404)  5.30 (6.23)  18.26 
LAZYLazydays Holdings 0.02 3 per month 0.00 (0.11)  5.24 (5.62)  13.21 
RMBLRumbleON 0.27 4 per month 0.00 (0.24)  5.38 (8.89)  40.56 
RUSHARush Enterprises A(0.43) 1 per month 1.52  0.04  3.29 (2.47)  8.35 
AAPAdvance Auto Parts(3.91) 9 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.08 (3.99)  19.72 
ABBYAbby Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 

CarMax Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine CarMax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CarMax using various technical indicators. When you analyze CarMax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About CarMax Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of CarMax stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CarMax Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CarMax based on analysis of CarMax hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CarMax's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CarMax's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity4.113.353.473.92
Interest Coverage15.6812.216.8616.76

Story Coverage note for CarMax

The number of cover stories for CarMax depends on current market conditions and CarMax's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CarMax is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CarMax's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

CarMax Short Properties

CarMax's future price predictability will typically decrease when CarMax's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CarMax Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CarMax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CarMax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding165133000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments102716000.00
Please see CarMax Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fund Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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When running CarMax Inc price analysis, check to measure CarMax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CarMax is operating at the current time. Most of CarMax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CarMax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CarMax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CarMax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CarMax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CarMax. If investors know CarMax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CarMax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.54) 
Market Capitalization
10.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.023
Return On Assets
0.028
Return On Equity
0.16
The market value of CarMax Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CarMax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CarMax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CarMax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CarMax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CarMax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CarMax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CarMax value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CarMax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.