Lithia Motors Stock Price Prediction
LAD Stock | USD 283.66 1.70 0.60% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Lithia Motors stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lithia Motors shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lithia Motors' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lithia Motors and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lithia Motors' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lithia Motors, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lithia Motors' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 8.74 | EPS Estimate Current Year 35.48 | EPS Estimate Next Year 39.79 | Wall Street Target Price 344.62 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lithia Motors based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lithia stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lithia Motors over a specific investment horizon. Using Lithia Motors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lithia Motors from the perspective of Lithia Motors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lithia Motors using Lithia Motors' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lithia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lithia Motors' stock price.
Lithia Motors Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lithia Motors' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lithia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lithia Motors stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lithia Motors may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lithia Motors and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lithia Motors with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 288.9488 | Short Percent 0.1033 | Short Ratio 11.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 294.7326 |
Lithia Motors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lithia Motors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lithia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lithia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lithia Motors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lithia Motors' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lithia Motors.
Lithia Motors Implied Volatility | 36.8 |
Lithia Motors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lithia Motors stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lithia Motors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lithia Motors stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lithia Motors' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lithia Motors. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lithia Motors to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lithia because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lithia Motors after-hype prediction price | USD 283.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lithia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lithia Motors will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.3% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Lithia Motors trading at USD 283.66, that is roughly USD 6.52 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lithia Motors' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lithia Motors options at the current volatility level of 36.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lithia |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lithia Motors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Lithia Motors in the context of predictive analytics.
Lithia Motors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lithia Motors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lithia Motors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lithia Motors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Lithia Motors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lithia Motors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lithia Motors' historical news coverage. Lithia Motors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 281.73 and 285.87, respectively. We have considered Lithia Motors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lithia Motors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lithia Motors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lithia Motors Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lithia Motors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lithia Motors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lithia Motors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.07 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
283.66 | 283.80 | 0.05 |
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Lithia Motors Hype Timeline
On the 19th of March Lithia Motors is traded for 283.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Lithia is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 283.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 175.42%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Lithia Motors is about 317.38% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 283.74. The company reported the last year's revenue of 31.04 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.15 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Lithia Motors Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lithia Motors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lithia Motors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lithia Motors' future price movements. Getting to know how Lithia Motors rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lithia Motors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
M | Macys Inc | (0.44) | 8 per month | 2.14 | 0.03 | 3.72 | (3.19) | 16.36 | |
W | Wayfair | 3.27 | 9 per month | 3.22 | 0.04 | 9.34 | (5.77) | 20.42 | |
DIBS | 1StdibsCom | (0.08) | 9 per month | 2.64 | 0.1 | 8.04 | (5.79) | 17.90 | |
BQ | Boqii Holding Limited | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 10.34 | (10.81) | 58.00 | |
FL | Foot Locker | (0.35) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.18 | (4.77) | 39.34 | |
HD | Home Depot | 2.96 | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.04 | 2.02 | (1.58) | 5.22 | |
JD | JD Inc Adr | 0.47 | 7 per month | 3.03 | 0.02 | 5.86 | (4.87) | 19.88 | |
LE | Lands End | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.38 | (5.44) | 16.45 | |
LL | LL Flooring Holdings | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 5.66 | (5.73) | 16.26 |
Lithia Motors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lithia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lithia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lithia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Lithia Motors Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lithia Motors stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lithia Motors, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lithia Motors based on analysis of Lithia Motors hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lithia Motors's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lithia Motors's related companies. 2021 | 2024 (projected) | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.38 | 0.2 | Price Earnings Ratio | 8.12 | 13.74 |
Story Coverage note for Lithia Motors
The number of cover stories for Lithia Motors depends on current market conditions and Lithia Motors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lithia Motors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lithia Motors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lithia Motors Short Properties
Lithia Motors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lithia Motors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lithia Motors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lithia Motors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lithia Motors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.6 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 941.4 M |
Check out Lithia Motors Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lithia Stock refer to our How to Trade Lithia Stock guide.Note that the Lithia Motors information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lithia Motors' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Lithia Stock analysis
When running Lithia Motors' price analysis, check to measure Lithia Motors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lithia Motors is operating at the current time. Most of Lithia Motors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lithia Motors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lithia Motors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lithia Motors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lithia Motors' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lithia Motors. If investors know Lithia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lithia Motors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 36.29 | Revenue Per Share 1.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 |
The market value of Lithia Motors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lithia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lithia Motors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lithia Motors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lithia Motors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lithia Motors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lithia Motors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lithia Motors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lithia Motors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.