Lucid Group Stock Price Prediction
| LCID Stock | USD 2.43 0.06 2.41% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Lucid Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lucid shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lucid's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lucid and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lucid's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lucid Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lucid's stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.26) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.04) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.99) | Wall Street Target Price 3.26 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.30) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lucid based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lucid stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lucid over a specific investment horizon. Using Lucid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lucid Group from the perspective of Lucid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lucid using Lucid's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lucid using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lucid's stock price.
Lucid Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lucid's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lucid. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lucid stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lucid may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lucid and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lucid with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 4.6399 | Short Percent 0.235 | Short Ratio 8.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 256.1 M | 50 Day MA 3.041 |
Lucid Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lucid's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lucid. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lucid can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lucid Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lucid's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lucid.
Lucid Implied Volatility | 303.13 |
Lucid's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lucid Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lucid's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lucid stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lucid's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lucid. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lucid to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lucid because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lucid after-hype prediction price | USD 2.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lucid contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lucid Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 18.95% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Lucid trading at USD 2.43, that is roughly USD 0.46 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lucid's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lucid Group options at the current volatility level of 303.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lucid |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lucid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lucid After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lucid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lucid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lucid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lucid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lucid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lucid's historical news coverage. Lucid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 7.88, respectively. We have considered Lucid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lucid is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lucid Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lucid Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lucid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lucid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lucid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 5.41 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.43 | 2.43 | 0.00 |
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Lucid Hype Timeline
Lucid Group is now traded for 2.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Lucid is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lucid is about 2365.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.41. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lucid Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.13. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.36. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Lucid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lucid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lucid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lucid's future price movements. Getting to know how Lucid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lucid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HYMC | Hycroft Mining Holding | (0.02) | 5 per month | 3.41 | 0.13 | 13.71 | (6.47) | 35.61 | |
| XELA | Exela Technologies | (0.31) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 13.11 | (8.36) | 39.69 | |
| AQUI | Aquagold International | (0.84) | 32 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | |
| LBHIX | Thrivent High Yield | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.48 | (0.48) | 1.21 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | (0.26) | 2 per month | 0.60 | (0.04) | 0.98 | (1.17) | 2.64 | |
| RRTLX | T Rowe Price | (0.40) | 1 per month | 0.26 | (0.07) | 0.51 | (0.59) | 1.46 | |
| OSHDF | Oshidori International Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 70082LAB3 | US70082LAB36 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.52 | (1.89) | 18.40 |
Lucid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lucid price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lucid using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lucid charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lucid Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lucid stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lucid Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lucid based on analysis of Lucid hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lucid's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lucid's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.06E-4 | 1.22E-4 | 1.16E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.0K | 14.72 | 13.99 |
Story Coverage note for Lucid
The number of cover stories for Lucid depends on current market conditions and Lucid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lucid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lucid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lucid Short Properties
Lucid's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lucid's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lucid Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lucid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lucid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 B |
Check out Lucid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for Lucid Stock analysis
When running Lucid's price analysis, check to measure Lucid's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lucid is operating at the current time. Most of Lucid's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lucid's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lucid's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lucid to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lucid's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lucid. If investors know Lucid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lucid listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.36) | Revenue Per Share 0.286 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.39) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (0.61) |
The market value of Lucid Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lucid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lucid's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lucid's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lucid's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lucid's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lucid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lucid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lucid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.