Lennar Stock Future Price Prediction

LEN
 Stock
  

USD 87.83  0.47  0.53%   

Lennar stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lennar shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lennar's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lennar and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lennar's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lennar, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Lennar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lennar based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lennar stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lennar over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.11
EPS Estimate Current Year
16.38
EPS Estimate Next Year
11.79
Wall Street Target Price
96.71
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
4.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.29
Using Lennar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lennar from the perspective of Lennar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lennar using Lennar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lennar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lennar's stock price.
Lennar Quick Ratio is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Quick Ratio is estimated at 4.04. Current Ratio is expected to rise to 24.01 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 47.59.

Lennar Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Lennar's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lennar. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lennar stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lennar may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lennar and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lennar with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
80.0
Short Percent
0.0426
Short Ratio
3.84
Shares Short Prior Month
11.4 M
50 Day MA
80.04
Shares Short
9.4 M

Lennar Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Lennar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Lennar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lennar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lennar. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lennar's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lennar.

Lennar Implied Volatility

    
  24.5  
Lennar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lennar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lennar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lennar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lennar's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lennar. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lennar to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lennar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Lennar after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 87.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lennar contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lennar will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.53% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Lennar trading at USD87.83, that is roughly USD1.34. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lennar's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lennar options at the current volatility level of 24.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lennar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Lennar in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
79.05100.22103.12
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
102.00129.30160.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
14.8015.6016.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lennar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lennar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lennar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Lennar.

Lennar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Lennar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lennar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lennar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Lennar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Lennar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lennar's historical news coverage. Lennar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 84.68 and 90.48, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 87.83
87.58
After-hype Price
90.48
Upside
Lennar is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lennar is based on 3 months time horizon.

Lennar Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Lennar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lennar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lennar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.28  2.90   0.25   0.21  10 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
87.8387.580.28 
322.22  

Lennar Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of December Lennar is traded for 87.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Lennar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 87.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.28% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Lennar is about 383.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 88.04. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lennar recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of October 2022. The firm had 1017:1000 split on the 9th of November 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Additionally, see Lennar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Lennar Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Lennar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lennar's future price movements. Getting to know how Lennar rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lennar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BUDFFAnheuser-Busch InBev SANV 0.00 0 per month 1.49  0.12  3.65 (2.86)  7.80 
BUDAnheuser Busch Inbev(0.17) 6 per month 1.53  0.13  3.45 (2.77)  8.01 
ETSYEtsy Inc(1.04) 9 per month 3.73  0.09  6.13 (6.32)  20.97 
LINLinde PLC(3.16) 4 per month 1.24  0.11  3.81 (2.02)  7.54 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp(0.58) 8 per month 1.77  0.07  3.65 (2.91)  9.75 
AXPAmerican Express 10.20 8 per month 1.77 (0.0137)  3.88 (3.11)  8.22 
CVXChevron Corp 2.71 9 per month 1.90  0.06  3.37 (2.91)  9.61 
CSCOCisco Systems(0.64) 8 per month 1.33  0.0471  3.23 (1.96)  6.31 
GEGeneral Electric(0.51) 7 per month 1.64  0.08  3.43 (2.68)  9.22 

Lennar Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Lennar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lennar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lennar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Lennar Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Lennar stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lennar, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lennar based on analysis of Lennar hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lennar's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lennar's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.330.220.26
Interest Coverage407.05663.47597.13

Story Coverage note for Lennar

The number of cover stories for Lennar depends on current market conditions and Lennar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lennar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lennar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Lennar Short Properties

Lennar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lennar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lennar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lennar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lennar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding306612000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments2963398000.00
Additionally, see Lennar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Lennar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lennar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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When running Lennar price analysis, check to measure Lennar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lennar is operating at the current time. Most of Lennar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lennar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lennar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lennar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lennar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lennar. If investors know Lennar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lennar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.11
Market Capitalization
25.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.29
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Lennar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lennar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lennar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lennar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lennar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lennar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lennar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Lennar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lennar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.