Lumentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| LITE Stock | USD 42.01 0.67 1.62% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Lumentum Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lumentum Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lumentum Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lumentum Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lumentum Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lumentum Holdings' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.07 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.38 | Wall Street Target Price 54.69 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lumentum Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lumentum stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lumentum Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Lumentum Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lumentum Holdings from the perspective of Lumentum Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lumentum Holdings using Lumentum Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lumentum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lumentum Holdings' stock price.
Lumentum Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lumentum Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lumentum. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lumentum Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lumentum Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lumentum Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lumentum Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 47.9834 | Short Percent 0.1977 | Short Ratio 7.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.1 M | 50 Day MA 47.4535 |
Lumentum Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lumentum Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lumentum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lumentum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lumentum Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lumentum Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lumentum Holdings.
Lumentum Holdings Implied Volatility | 80.1 |
Lumentum Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lumentum Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lumentum Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lumentum Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lumentum Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lumentum Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lumentum Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lumentum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lumentum Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 42.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lumentum contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lumentum Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.01% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Lumentum Holdings trading at USD 42.01, that is roughly USD 2.1 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lumentum Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lumentum Holdings options at the current volatility level of 80.1%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lumentum |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lumentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lumentum Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lumentum Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lumentum Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lumentum Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lumentum Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lumentum Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lumentum Holdings' historical news coverage. Lumentum Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.88 and 46.86, respectively. We have considered Lumentum Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lumentum Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lumentum Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lumentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lumentum Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lumentum Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lumentum Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 3.99 | 0.86 | 0.13 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
42.01 | 42.87 | 2.05 |
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Lumentum Holdings Hype Timeline
Lumentum Holdings is now traded for 42.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.86, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Lumentum is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 175.77%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 2.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.38%. The volatility of related hype on Lumentum Holdings is about 1149.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.88. The company currently holds 2.87 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.03, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Lumentum Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lumentum Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lumentum Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lumentum Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Lumentum Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lumentum Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DM | Desktop Metal | 0.06 | 10 per month | 5.81 | 0.1 | 15.22 | (9.84) | 34.49 | |
| FN | Fabrinet | (2.28) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.43 | (5.96) | 22.29 | |
| KE | Kimball Electronics | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.02 | (3.47) | 18.10 | |
| KN | Knowles Cor | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.67 | (3.03) | 8.35 | |
| DSWL | Deswell Industries | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.22 | (2.64) | 9.98 | |
| AMPGW | AmpliTech Group | 0.01 | 2 per month | 8.44 | 0.08 | 36.36 | (20.00) | 81.21 | |
| VIAO | Via OptronicsAg | 0.07 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.49 | (16.67) | 41.84 |
Lumentum Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lumentum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lumentum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lumentum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lumentum Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lumentum Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lumentum Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings based on analysis of Lumentum Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lumentum Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lumentum Holdings's related companies. | 2017 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 3.2E-5 | 2.23E-4 | 2.11E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.19 | 2.89 | 1.85 |
Story Coverage note for Lumentum Holdings
The number of cover stories for Lumentum Holdings depends on current market conditions and Lumentum Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lumentum Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lumentum Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lumentum Holdings Short Properties
Lumentum Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lumentum Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lumentum Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lumentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Check out Lumentum Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lumentum Stock refer to our How to Trade Lumentum Stock guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Lumentum Stock analysis
When running Lumentum Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Lumentum Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lumentum Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Lumentum Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lumentum Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lumentum Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lumentum Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lumentum Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumentum Holdings. If investors know Lumentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.711 | Earnings Share (3.95) | Revenue Per Share 21.25 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Lumentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.