Mediaalpha Stock Price Prediction

MAX Stock  USD 20.00  0.14  0.70%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of MediaAlpha's the stock price is slightly above 60. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling MediaAlpha, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

60

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
MediaAlpha stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of MediaAlpha shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of MediaAlpha's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of MediaAlpha and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from MediaAlpha's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MediaAlpha, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting MediaAlpha's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.91)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.62)
Wall Street Target Price
0.86
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.26)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of MediaAlpha based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The MediaAlpha stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on MediaAlpha over a specific investment horizon. Using MediaAlpha hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MediaAlpha from the perspective of MediaAlpha response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MediaAlpha using MediaAlpha's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MediaAlpha using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MediaAlpha's stock price.

MediaAlpha Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
MediaAlpha's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MediaAlpha stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MediaAlpha's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MediaAlpha stock will not fluctuate a lot when MediaAlpha's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in MediaAlpha. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MediaAlpha to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MediaAlpha because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

MediaAlpha after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.21  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out MediaAlpha Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy MediaAlpha Stock please use our How to Invest in MediaAlpha guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MediaAlpha's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.8011.1122.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.5520.8625.17
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.21-0.15-0.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MediaAlpha. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MediaAlpha's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MediaAlpha's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MediaAlpha.

MediaAlpha After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of MediaAlpha at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MediaAlpha or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MediaAlpha, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

MediaAlpha Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting MediaAlpha's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MediaAlpha's historical news coverage. MediaAlpha's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.90 and 24.52, respectively. We have considered MediaAlpha's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.00
20.21
After-hype Price
24.52
Upside
MediaAlpha is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MediaAlpha is based on 3 months time horizon.

MediaAlpha Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MediaAlpha is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MediaAlpha backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MediaAlpha, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.05 
4.31
  0.21 
  0.08 
9 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.00
20.21
1.05 
2,155  
Notes

MediaAlpha Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March MediaAlpha is traded for 20.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. MediaAlpha is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.05%. The volatility of related hype on MediaAlpha is about 5829.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 388.15 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (40.42 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 70.06 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out MediaAlpha Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy MediaAlpha Stock please use our How to Invest in MediaAlpha guide.

MediaAlpha Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to MediaAlpha's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MediaAlpha's future price movements. Getting to know how MediaAlpha rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MediaAlpha may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

MediaAlpha Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine MediaAlpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MediaAlpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze MediaAlpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About MediaAlpha Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of MediaAlpha stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MediaAlpha, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MediaAlpha based on analysis of MediaAlpha hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MediaAlpha's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MediaAlpha's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield3.57E-40.0051130.005880.005586
Price To Sales Ratio1.470.911.312.16

Story Coverage note for MediaAlpha

The number of cover stories for MediaAlpha depends on current market conditions and MediaAlpha's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MediaAlpha is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MediaAlpha's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

MediaAlpha Short Properties

MediaAlpha's future price predictability will typically decrease when MediaAlpha's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MediaAlpha often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MediaAlpha's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MediaAlpha's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding45.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments17.3 M
When determining whether MediaAlpha offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MediaAlpha's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mediaalpha Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mediaalpha Stock:
Check out MediaAlpha Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy MediaAlpha Stock please use our How to Invest in MediaAlpha guide.
Note that the MediaAlpha information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MediaAlpha's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

Complementary Tools for MediaAlpha Stock analysis

When running MediaAlpha's price analysis, check to measure MediaAlpha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MediaAlpha is operating at the current time. Most of MediaAlpha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MediaAlpha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MediaAlpha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MediaAlpha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MediaAlpha's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MediaAlpha. If investors know MediaAlpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MediaAlpha listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.32)
Revenue Per Share
8.517
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Return On Assets
(0.14)
The market value of MediaAlpha is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MediaAlpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MediaAlpha's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MediaAlpha's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MediaAlpha's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MediaAlpha's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MediaAlpha's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MediaAlpha is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MediaAlpha's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.