Moneygram Stock Price Prediction

MGI -  USA Stock  

USD 10.24  0.49  5.03%

Moneygram Intl stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Moneygram Intl shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Moneygram Intl stock future price could yield a significant profit.
We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Moneygram Intl, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Additionally, see Moneygram Intl Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Moneygram Intl based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Moneygram stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Moneygram Intl over a specific investment horizon. Using Moneygram Intl hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moneygram Intl from the perspective of Moneygram Intl response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Moneygram Intl PPandE Turnover is most likely to drop slightly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of PPandE Turnover was reported at 7.49. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 6.94, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 1.22.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Moneygram Intl. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Moneygram Intl to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Moneygram because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Moneygram Intl after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 10.19  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moneygram Intl's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moneygram Intl in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.798.1513.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.839.1914.55
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.008.4212.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.09-0.020.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moneygram Intl. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moneygram Intl's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moneygram Intl's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moneygram Intl.

Moneygram Intl After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Moneygram Intl at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Moneygram Intl or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Moneygram Intl, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Moneygram Intl Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Moneygram Intl's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Moneygram Intl's historical news coverage. Moneygram Intl's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.83 and 15.55, respectively. We have considered Moneygram Intl's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.24
20th of June 2021
10.19
After-hype Price
15.55
Upside
Moneygram Intl is slightly risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Moneygram Intl is based on 3 months time horizon.

Moneygram Intl Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Moneygram Intl is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moneygram Intl backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Moneygram Intl, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.78  5.36  0.05   0.01  9 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.2410.190.49 
8,933  

Moneygram Intl Hype Timeline

On the 20th of June Moneygram Intl is traded for 10.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Moneygram is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 10.19. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.49% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.78%. The volatility of related hype on Moneygram Intl is about 48727.27% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.23. About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.1. Moneygram Intl next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 12th of December 2007. The entity had 1:8 split on the 15th of November 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.
Additionally, see Moneygram Intl Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Moneygram Intl Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Moneygram Intl's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Moneygram Intl's future price movements. Getting to know how Moneygram Intl rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Moneygram Intl may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Xiaobai Maimai(0.01) 5 per month 0.00 (0.11)  7.25 (6.59)  20.24 
Orix Corp ADR 0.19 4 per month 0.00 (0.0404)  2.38 (2.94)  6.67 
Jianpu Technology 0.18 7 per month 5.23  0.0103  7.66 (8.91)  34.33 
Lendingclub Corp 0.41 8 per month 0.00 (0.0069)  6.13 (7.97)  21.13 
Lufax Holding(0.23) 4 per month 0.00 (0.1)  3.28 (5.13)  11.66 
Lexinfintech Holdings 0.02 5 per month 4.77  0.0055  6.29 (6.22)  34.23 
Mastercard(0.80) 9 per month 0.00 (0.05)  1.96 (2.41)  5.16 
Elevate Credit 0.10 9 per month 0.00 (0.0472)  6.59 (4.65)  19.57 
Enova International(0.70) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0473)  3.90 (3.70)  9.23 
Ezcorp Inc 0.73 9 per month 1.98  0.07  4.09 (3.02)  16.82 

Moneygram Intl Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Moneygram price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moneygram using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moneygram charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Moneygram Intl Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Moneygram Intl stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Moneygram Intl, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Moneygram Intl based on analysis of Moneygram Intl hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Moneygram Intl's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Moneygram Intl's related companies.
 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity10.1310.07
Interest Coverage1.111.32

Story Coverage note for Moneygram Intl

The number of cover stories for Moneygram Intl depends on current market conditions and Moneygram Intl's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moneygram Intl is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moneygram Intl's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Moneygram Intl

Moneygram Intl Short Properties

Moneygram Intl's future price predictability will typically decrease when Moneygram Intl's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moneygram Intl often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moneygram Intl's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moneygram Intl's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.32%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.30
Short Percent Of Float5.51%
Float Shares66.84M
Shares Short Prior Month4.18M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.68M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.44M
Date Short Interest15th of April 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.13%
Additionally, see Moneygram Intl Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Moneygram Intl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moneygram Intl's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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The market value of Moneygram Intl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moneygram that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moneygram Intl's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moneygram Intl's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moneygram Intl's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moneygram Intl underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moneygram Intl's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moneygram Intl value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moneygram Intl's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.