Altria Stock Future Price Prediction

MO
 Stock
  

USD 40.38  0.79  1.92%   

Altria Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Altria shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Altria's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Altria and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Altria's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Altria Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Altria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Altria based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Altria stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Altria over a specific investment horizon.Using Altria hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Altria Group from the perspective of Altria response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Altria using Altria's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Altria using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Altria's stock price.

Altria Implied Volatility

    
  30.04  
Altria's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Altria Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Altria's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Altria stock will not fluctuate a lot when Altria's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Altria. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Altria to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Altria because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Altria after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 40.36  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Altria contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Altria Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.88% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Altria trading at $40.38, that is roughly $0.76. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Altria's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Altria Group options at the current volatility level of 30.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altria's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Altria in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.3446.3847.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
39.3740.5741.78
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0050.8856.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
40.0843.8647.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Altria. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Altria's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Altria's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Altria Group.

Altria After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Altria at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Altria or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Altria, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Altria Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Altria's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Altria's historical news coverage. Altria's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.15 and 41.57, respectively. We have considered Altria's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 40.38
40.36
After-hype Price
41.57
Upside
Altria is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Altria Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Altria Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Altria is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Altria backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Altria, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04  1.21   0.02    0.11  7 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
40.3840.360.05 
195.16  

Altria Hype Timeline

As of October 2, 2022 Altria Group is listed for 40.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Altria is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 40.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 195.16%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.05% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Altria is about 45.15% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 40.27. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.78. Altria Group last dividend was issued on the 14th of June 2022. The entity had 3:1 split on the 11th of April 1997. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days.
Additionally, see Altria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Altria Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Altria's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Altria's future price movements. Getting to know how Altria rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Altria may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Altria Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Altria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Altria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Altria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Altria Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Altria stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Altria Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Altria based on analysis of Altria hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Altria's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Altria's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Altria

The number of cover stories for Altria depends on current market conditions and Altria's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Altria is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Altria's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Altria Short Properties

Altria's future price predictability will typically decrease when Altria's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Altria Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Altria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.10%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.42
Short Percent Of Float1.10%
Float Shares1.8B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day11.22M
Shares Short Prior Month17.53M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month8.41M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield8.26%
Additionally, see Altria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Altria Group price analysis, check to measure Altria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altria is operating at the current time. Most of Altria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Altria's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altria. If investors know Altria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altria listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Altria Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altria that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altria's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altria's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altria's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altria's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altria's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Altria value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altria's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.