Movado Group Stock Price Prediction
| MOV Stock | USD 26.20 0.31 1.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Movado Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Movado shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Movado's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Movado and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Movado's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Movado Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Movado's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.91 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.06 | Wall Street Target Price 41 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.39 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Movado based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Movado stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Movado over a specific investment horizon. Using Movado hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Movado Group from the perspective of Movado response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Movado using Movado's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Movado using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Movado's stock price.
Movado Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Movado's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Movado Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Movado's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Movado stock will not fluctuate a lot when Movado's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Movado. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Movado to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Movado because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Movado after-hype prediction price | USD 26.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Movado |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Movado's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Movado After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Movado at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Movado or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Movado, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Movado Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Movado's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Movado's historical news coverage. Movado's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.29 and 28.17, respectively. We have considered Movado's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Movado is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Movado Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Movado Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Movado is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Movado backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Movado, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.94 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.20 | 26.23 | 0.11 |
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Movado Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Movado Group is traded for 26.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Movado is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Movado is about 1997.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.21. The company reported the last year's revenue of 672.6 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 46.71 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 419.06 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Movado Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Movado Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Movado's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Movado's future price movements. Getting to know how Movado's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Movado may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYTE | MYT Netherlands Parent | 0.28 | 8 per month | 3.17 | 0.12 | 10.69 | (6.91) | 29.69 | |
| ELA | Envela Corp | 0.06 | 11 per month | 2.24 | (0.01) | 4.30 | (3.97) | 11.18 | |
| TPR | Tapestry | (0.29) | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.02 | 3.17 | (2.93) | 11.28 | |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | 0.14 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 1.46 | (3.25) | 7.13 | |
| LANV | Lanvin Group Holdings | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.44 | (8.22) | 33.62 | |
| REAL | TheRealReal | 0.01 | 12 per month | 3.19 | 0.14 | 12.03 | (6.07) | 63.64 | |
| SIG | Signet Jewelers | 0.44 | 10 per month | 2.87 | (0.01) | 3.14 | (3.69) | 15.08 |
Movado Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Movado price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Movado using various technical indicators. When you analyze Movado charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Movado Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Movado stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Movado Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Movado based on analysis of Movado hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Movado's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Movado's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0256 | 0.0394 | 0.0867 | 0.0911 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.17 | 1.06 | 0.91 | 0.75 |
Story Coverage note for Movado
The number of cover stories for Movado depends on current market conditions and Movado's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Movado is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Movado's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Movado Short Properties
Movado's future price predictability will typically decrease when Movado's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Movado Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Movado's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Movado's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 262.5 M |
Check out Movado Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Movado Stock analysis
When running Movado's price analysis, check to measure Movado's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Movado is operating at the current time. Most of Movado's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Movado's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Movado's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Movado to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Movado's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Movado. If investors know Movado will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Movado listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 2.06 | Revenue Per Share 30.269 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Movado Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Movado that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Movado's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Movado's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Movado's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Movado's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Movado's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Movado is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Movado's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.