Merck Stock Future Price Prediction

MRK -  USA Stock  

USD 92.31  1.44  1.54%

Merck Company stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Merck shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Merck's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Merck and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Merck's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Merck Company, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Merck based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Merck stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Merck over a specific investment horizon. Using Merck hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merck Company from the perspective of Merck response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merck using Merck's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merck's stock price.
Merck PPandE Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of PPandE Turnover was reported at 2.61. The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 3.08, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to decrease to 4.55.

Merck Implied Volatility

    
  28.76  
Merck's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merck Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merck's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merck stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merck's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Merck. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Merck to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Merck because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Merck after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 94.94  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merck in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
85.1898.5799.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
93.3094.4095.51
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0090.88110.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.655.825.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merck Company.

Merck After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Merck at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merck or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Merck, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Merck Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Merck's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merck's historical news coverage. Merck's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 93.83 and 96.05, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 92.31
94.94
After-hype Price
96.05
Upside
Merck is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merck Company is based on 3 months time horizon.

Merck Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Merck is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merck backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merck, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.32  1.11  0.04   0.87  10 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
92.3194.940.32 
1,009  

Merck Hype Timeline

On the 27th of May Merck Company is traded for 92.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.87. Merck is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 94.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.32% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Merck is about 40.96% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 93.18. The company reported the last year's revenue of 53.98 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 13.91 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35.46 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Additionally, see Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Merck Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Merck's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merck's future price movements. Getting to know how Merck rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merck may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMGNAmgen Inc 2.71 4 per month 0.99  0.21  1.77 (1.95)  7.83 

Merck Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Merck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Merck Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Merck stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Merck Company, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Merck based on analysis of Merck hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Merck's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Merck's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.881.00.90.97
Interest Coverage18.7410.249.2210.94

Story Coverage note for Merck

The number of cover stories for Merck depends on current market conditions and Merck's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merck is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merck's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Merck Short Properties

Merck's future price predictability will typically decrease when Merck's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Merck Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.67%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.56
Short Percent Of Float0.67%
Float Shares2.52B
Shares Short Prior Month16.86M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day13.23M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month11.62M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.78%
Additionally, see Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Merck Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merck's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis

When running Merck Company price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merck value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.