Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Price Prediction
| NCLH Stock | USD 18.17 0.15 0.83% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Norwegian Cruise Line stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Norwegian Cruise shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Norwegian Cruise's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Norwegian Cruise's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Norwegian Cruise Line, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Norwegian Cruise's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.20) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.27 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.73 | Wall Street Target Price 20.55 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Norwegian Cruise based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Norwegian stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Norwegian Cruise over a specific investment horizon. Using Norwegian Cruise hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norwegian Cruise Line from the perspective of Norwegian Cruise response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Norwegian Cruise using Norwegian Cruise's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Norwegian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Norwegian Cruise's stock price.
Norwegian Cruise Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Norwegian Cruise's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Norwegian. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Norwegian Cruise stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Norwegian Cruise may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Norwegian Cruise and may potentially protect profits, hedge Norwegian Cruise with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.6093 | Short Percent 0.1011 | Short Ratio 3.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 39.8 M | 50 Day MA 18.6544 |
Norwegian Cruise Line Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Norwegian Cruise's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Norwegian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Norwegian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Norwegian Cruise Line. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Norwegian Cruise's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Norwegian Cruise.
Norwegian Cruise Implied Volatility | 86.94 |
Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Norwegian Cruise Line stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Norwegian Cruise stock will not fluctuate a lot when Norwegian Cruise's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Norwegian Cruise. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Norwegian Cruise to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Norwegian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Norwegian Cruise after-hype prediction price | USD 18.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Norwegian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Norwegian Cruise Line will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.43% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Norwegian Cruise trading at USD 18.17, that is roughly USD 0.99 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Norwegian Cruise's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Norwegian Cruise Line options at the current volatility level of 86.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Norwegian |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norwegian Cruise's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Norwegian Cruise After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Norwegian Cruise at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norwegian Cruise or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norwegian Cruise, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Norwegian Cruise Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Norwegian Cruise's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norwegian Cruise's historical news coverage. Norwegian Cruise's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.74 and 21.62, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Cruise's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Norwegian Cruise is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norwegian Cruise Line is based on 3 months time horizon.
Norwegian Cruise Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norwegian Cruise is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norwegian Cruise backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norwegian Cruise, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 3.44 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.17 | 18.18 | 0.06 |
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Norwegian Cruise Hype Timeline
Norwegian Cruise Line is now traded for 18.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Norwegian is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Norwegian Cruise is about 1625.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.20. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.55 B. Net Income was 166.18 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 576.67 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Norwegian Cruise Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Norwegian Cruise Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Norwegian Cruise's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norwegian Cruise's future price movements. Getting to know how Norwegian Cruise's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norwegian Cruise may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YTRA | Yatra Online | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.40 | (4.52) | 14.67 | |
| DESP | Despegar Corp | (0.13) | 7 per month | 2.69 | 0.09 | 5.72 | (4.59) | 21.38 | |
| MOND | Mondee Holdings | 0.03 | 8 per month | 4.64 | 0 | 6.81 | (8.95) | 25.63 | |
| MMYT | MakeMyTrip Limited | 0.79 | 11 per month | 2.80 | 0.13 | 3.85 | (3.76) | 17.67 | |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor | 0.59 | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.14 | 3.80 | (2.20) | 18.53 | |
| ISPOW | Thayer Ventures Acquisition | 0.00 | 1 per month | 12.00 | 0.12 | 26.67 | (25.00) | 170.23 |
Norwegian Cruise Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Norwegian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norwegian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norwegian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Norwegian Cruise Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Norwegian Cruise stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Norwegian Cruise Line, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise based on analysis of Norwegian Cruise hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Norwegian Cruise's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Norwegian Cruise's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.34 | 0.00306 | 0.0408 | 0.0387 | Price To Sales Ratio | 11.7 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
Story Coverage note for Norwegian Cruise
The number of cover stories for Norwegian Cruise depends on current market conditions and Norwegian Cruise's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norwegian Cruise is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norwegian Cruise's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Norwegian Cruise Short Properties
Norwegian Cruise's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norwegian Cruise's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norwegian Cruise Line often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norwegian Cruise's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norwegian Cruise's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 427.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 402.4 M |
Check out Norwegian Cruise Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Norwegian Stock analysis
When running Norwegian Cruise's price analysis, check to measure Norwegian Cruise's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Norwegian Cruise is operating at the current time. Most of Norwegian Cruise's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Norwegian Cruise's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Norwegian Cruise's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Norwegian Cruise to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Norwegian Cruise's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwegian Cruise. If investors know Norwegian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norwegian Cruise listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Earnings Share 0.39 | Revenue Per Share 20.145 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.308 | Return On Assets 0.0306 |
The market value of Norwegian Cruise Line is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norwegian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norwegian Cruise's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norwegian Cruise's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norwegian Cruise's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norwegian Cruise's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norwegian Cruise's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Norwegian Cruise is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norwegian Cruise's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.