National Cinemedia Stock Price Prediction

NCMI Stock  USD 5.06  0.22  4.17%   
As of 28th of March 2024, The relative strength momentum indicator of National CineMedia's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling National CineMedia, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

50

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
National CineMedia stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of National CineMedia shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of National CineMedia's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of National CineMedia and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from National CineMedia's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with National CineMedia, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting National CineMedia's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.09)
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.04
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.12
Wall Street Target Price
6.08
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of National CineMedia based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The National stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on National CineMedia over a specific investment horizon. Using National CineMedia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National CineMedia from the perspective of National CineMedia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National CineMedia using National CineMedia's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National CineMedia's stock price.

National CineMedia Implied Volatility

    
  67.14  
National CineMedia's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National CineMedia stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National CineMedia's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National CineMedia stock will not fluctuate a lot when National CineMedia's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in National CineMedia. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National CineMedia to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

National CineMedia after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out National CineMedia Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National CineMedia guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National CineMedia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.654.698.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1.865.909.94
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.414.855.38
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.12-0.07-0.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National CineMedia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National CineMedia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National CineMedia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National CineMedia.

National CineMedia After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of National CineMedia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National CineMedia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National CineMedia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

National CineMedia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting National CineMedia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National CineMedia's historical news coverage. National CineMedia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.00 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered National CineMedia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.06
5.04
After-hype Price
9.08
Upside
National CineMedia is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National CineMedia is based on 3 months time horizon.

National CineMedia Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National CineMedia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National CineMedia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National CineMedia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
4.04
  0.02 
  0.15 
6 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.06
5.04
0.40 
10,100  
Notes

National CineMedia Hype Timeline

National CineMedia is now traded for 5.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. National is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on National CineMedia is about 1111.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.91. About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.18. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National CineMedia recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of August 2022. The firm had 1:10 split on the 4th of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out National CineMedia Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National CineMedia guide.

National CineMedia Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to National CineMedia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National CineMedia's future price movements. Getting to know how National CineMedia rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National CineMedia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CURIWCuriosityStream 0.01 3 per month 13.50  0.17  56.46 (26.82) 208.33 
MDIAMediaco Holding(0.06)2 per month 5.76  0.07  10.64 (10.64) 53.08 
IQIQIYI Inc 0.17 10 per month 0.00 (0.1) 5.65 (5.22) 18.61 
SESea(0.62)10 per month 2.02  0.17  5.21 (3.56) 10.54 
SJScienjoy Holding Corp(0.22)5 per month 0.00 (0.12) 8.07 (14.77) 67.29 
TVGrupo Televisa SAB 0.07 7 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.56 (4.11) 21.27 
DLPNDolphin Entertainment 0.18 10 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.50 (4.76) 22.22 
MGOLMGO Global Common(0.04)4 per month 6.44  0.03  11.63 (9.76) 57.50 
DRCTDirect Digital Holdings(2.76)8 per month 10.23  0.06  17.66 (13.43) 42.91 

National CineMedia Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About National CineMedia Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of National CineMedia stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National CineMedia, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National CineMedia based on analysis of National CineMedia hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National CineMedia's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National CineMedia's related companies.
 2016 2019 2020 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.220.0024170.240.12
Price To Sales Ratio1.261.253.212.15

Story Coverage note for National CineMedia

The number of cover stories for National CineMedia depends on current market conditions and National CineMedia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National CineMedia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National CineMedia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

National CineMedia Short Properties

National CineMedia's future price predictability will typically decrease when National CineMedia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National CineMedia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National CineMedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National CineMedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding48.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments37.6 M
When determining whether National CineMedia offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National CineMedia's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Cinemedia Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Cinemedia Stock:
Check out National CineMedia Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National CineMedia guide.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running National CineMedia's price analysis, check to measure National CineMedia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National CineMedia is operating at the current time. Most of National CineMedia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National CineMedia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National CineMedia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National CineMedia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National CineMedia's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National CineMedia. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National CineMedia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
Earnings Share
14.34
Revenue Per Share
3.45
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
(0.03)
The market value of National CineMedia is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National CineMedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National CineMedia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National CineMedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National CineMedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National CineMedia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National CineMedia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National CineMedia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.