Natural Stock Future Price Prediction

NGVC -  USA Stock  

USD 13.34  0.87  6.12%

Natural Grocers By stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Natural Grocers shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Natural Grocers' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Natural Grocers and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Natural Grocers' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Natural Grocers By, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Natural Grocers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Natural Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Natural Grocers based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Natural stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Natural Grocers over a specific investment horizon. Using Natural Grocers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Natural Grocers By from the perspective of Natural Grocers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Natural Grocers using Natural Grocers' options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Natural using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Natural Grocers' stock price.
Natural Grocers Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.26. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 29.11, whereas Interest Coverage is forecasted to decline to 13.51.

Natural Grocers Implied Volatility

    
  99.24  
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers By stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Natural Grocers. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Natural Grocers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Natural because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Natural Grocers after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 13.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Natural Grocers in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.0116.4118.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.1113.6316.15
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0020.0020.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.680.710.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Natural Grocers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Natural Grocers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Natural Grocers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Natural Grocers By.

Natural Grocers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Natural Grocers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Natural Grocers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Natural Grocers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Natural Grocers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Natural Grocers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Natural Grocers' historical news coverage. Natural Grocers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.83 and 15.87, respectively. We have considered Natural Grocers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.34
28th of November 2021
13.35
After-hype Price
15.87
Upside
Natural Grocers is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Natural Grocers By is based on 3 months time horizon.

Natural Grocers Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Natural Grocers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Natural Grocers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Natural Grocers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.27  2.52  0.01   0.09  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.3413.350.07 
5,040  

Natural Grocers Hype Timeline

Natural Grocers By is now traded for 13.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Natural is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 13.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.07% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Natural Grocers is about 763.64% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 13.25. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.06 B. Net Income was 20.58 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 292.19 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipatedpress releasewill be in about 8 days.
Additionally, see Natural Grocers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Natural Grocers Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Natural Grocers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Natural Grocers' future price movements. Getting to know how Natural Grocers rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Natural Grocers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Natural Grocers Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Natural price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Natural using various technical indicators. When you analyze Natural charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Natural Grocers Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Natural Grocers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Natural Grocers By, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers based on analysis of Natural Grocers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Natural Grocers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Natural Grocers's related companies.
 2018 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.360.260.27
Interest Coverage3.3915.5813.51

Story Coverage note for Natural Grocers

The number of cover stories for Natural Grocers depends on current market conditions and Natural Grocers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Natural Grocers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Natural Grocers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Natural Grocers Short Properties

Natural Grocers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Natural Grocers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Natural Grocers By often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.78%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.28
Short Percent Of Float4.58%
Float Shares13.09M
Shares Short Prior Month206.75k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day59.04k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month76.87k
Date Short Interest29th of October 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.23%
Additionally, see Natural Grocers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis

When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Grocers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.