Nikola Corp Stock Price Prediction

NKLA Stock  USD 9.68  0.22  2.33%   
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Nikola Corp's share price is approaching 40. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Nikola Corp, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

40

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Nikola Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nikola Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Nikola Corp's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.10)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(10.94)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(8.30)
Wall Street Target Price
29
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.30)
Using Nikola Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nikola Corp from the perspective of Nikola Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nikola Corp using Nikola Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nikola using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nikola Corp's stock price.

Nikola Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Nikola Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Nikola. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Nikola Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
22.221
Short Percent
0.229
Short Ratio
3.28
Shares Short Prior Month
271.3 M
50 Day MA
12.8839

Nikola Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Nikola Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nikola. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nikola can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nikola Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Nikola Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Nikola Corp.

Nikola Corp Implied Volatility

    
  180.5  
Nikola Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nikola Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nikola Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nikola Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nikola Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Nikola Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Nikola because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Nikola Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.72  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nikola contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nikola Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 11.28% per day over the life of the 2024-07-26 option contract. With Nikola Corp trading at USD 9.68, that is roughly USD 1.09 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nikola Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nikola Corp options at the current volatility level of 180.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Nikola Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Nikola Stock refer to our How to Trade Nikola Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nikola Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.295.8612.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.7011.3117.93
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.202.422.69
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-3.02-2.8-2.4
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nikola Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nikola Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nikola Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nikola Corp.

Nikola Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nikola Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nikola Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nikola Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nikola Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nikola Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nikola Corp's historical news coverage. Nikola Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.10 and 16.34, respectively. We have considered Nikola Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.68
9.72
After-hype Price
16.34
Upside
Nikola Corp is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nikola Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nikola Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nikola Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nikola Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nikola Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.81 
6.62
  0.04 
  0.95 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.68
9.72
0.41 
13,240  
Notes

Nikola Corp Hype Timeline

Nikola Corp is now traded for 9.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.95. Nikola is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.81%. The volatility of related hype on Nikola Corp is about 562.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.63. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 35.84 M. Net Loss for the year was (864.62 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (104.76 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Nikola Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Nikola Stock refer to our How to Trade Nikola Stock guide.

Nikola Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nikola Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nikola Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Nikola Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nikola Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LEVLion Electric Corp(0.05)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 7.41 (6.73) 16.65 
XOSXos Inc 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.19) 2.95 (3.18) 19.76 
HYFMHydrofarm Holdings Group(0.02)7 per month 0.00 (0.18) 2.63 (4.29) 25.11 
CATCaterpillar 6.65 8 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.87 (2.41) 8.60 
AGCOAGCO Corporation 0.42 9 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.51 (2.69) 8.37 
DEDeere Company 2.23 11 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.02 (2.30) 6.91 
IDEXIdeanomics 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 11.32 (9.09) 25.90 
WNCWabash National 0.17 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.87 (3.69) 8.46 

Nikola Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nikola price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nikola using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nikola charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Nikola Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Nikola Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Nikola Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Nikola Corp based on analysis of Nikola Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Nikola Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Nikola Corp's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Days Sales Outstanding277.01368.27
PTB Ratio29.1927.73

Story Coverage note for Nikola Corp

The number of cover stories for Nikola Corp depends on current market conditions and Nikola Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nikola Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nikola Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Nikola Corp Short Properties

Nikola Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nikola Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nikola Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nikola Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nikola Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding800 M
Cash And Short Term Investments465.9 M

Complementary Tools for Nikola Stock analysis

When running Nikola Corp's price analysis, check to measure Nikola Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nikola Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Nikola Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nikola Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nikola Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nikola Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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