Northern Stock Future Price Prediction

NTRS Stock  USD 97.53  3.18  3.37%   
Northern Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Northern Trust shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Northern Trust's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northern Trust and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northern Trust's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northern Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Northern Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Northern Trust based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Northern stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Northern Trust over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.63) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.65
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.97
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.65
Wall Street Target Price
97.64
Using Northern Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Trust from the perspective of Northern Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northern Trust using Northern Trust's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northern Trust's stock price.
Northern Trust Price to Book Value is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Northern Trust reported last year Price to Book Value of 1.91. As of 01/27/2023, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 15.66, while Cash Flow Per Share is likely to drop 5.82.

Northern Trust Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Northern Trust's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northern. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northern Trust stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Northern Trust may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Northern Trust and may potentially protect profits, hedge Northern Trust with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
96.0465
Short Percent
0.0116
Short Ratio
2.34
Shares Short Prior Month
2.1 M
50 Day MA
91.4346

Northern Trust Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Northern Trust's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Northern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northern Trust. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northern Trust's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northern Trust.

Northern Trust Implied Volatility

    
  26.89  
Northern Trust's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northern Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northern Trust's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northern Trust stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northern Trust's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Northern Trust. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northern Trust to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northern because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Northern Trust after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 97.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northern contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northern Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.68% per day over the life of the 2023-02-17 option contract. With Northern Trust trading at USD97.53, that is roughly USD1.64. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northern Trust's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northern Trust options at the current volatility level of 26.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northern Trust in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
87.25108.17110.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
87.7589.9792.19
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
122.00137.82152.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
87.8991.3194.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern Trust's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northern Trust.

Northern Trust After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Northern Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Northern Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Northern Trust's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Trust's historical news coverage. Northern Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 94.78 and 99.22, respectively. We have considered Northern Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 97.53
97.00
After-hype Price
99.22
Upside
Northern Trust is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

Northern Trust Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Northern Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.29  2.25  0.07   0.01  4 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
97.5397.000.06 
978.26  

Northern Trust Hype Timeline

Northern Trust is now traded for 97.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Northern is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 97.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 0.06% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Northern Trust is about 6750.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 97.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.76 B. Net Income was 1.34 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.75 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 4 days.
Additionally, see Northern Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Northern Trust Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Trust rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Northern Trust Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Northern Trust Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Northern Trust stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northern Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northern Trust based on analysis of Northern Trust hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northern Trust's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northern Trust's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 2023 (projected)
PPandE Turnover12.5912.9311.6410.83
Calculated Tax Rate25.723.1226.5930.55

Story Coverage note for Northern Trust

The number of cover stories for Northern Trust depends on current market conditions and Northern Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Northern Trust Short Properties

Northern Trust's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northern Trust's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northern Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northern Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding208.4 M
Additionally, see Northern Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Northern Trust price analysis, check to measure Northern Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Trust is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northern Trust's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Trust. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Trust listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.63) 
Market Capitalization
19.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1) 
Return On Assets
0.0079
Return On Equity
0.1148
The market value of Northern Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern Trust value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.