Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras Stock Price Prediction
| PBR Stock | USD 16.81 0.15 0.88% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Petroleo Brasileiro stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Petroleo Brasileiro shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Petroleo Brasileiro's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Petroleo Brasileiro's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Petroleo Brasileiro's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.94 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.43 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.25 | Wall Street Target Price 17.14 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Petroleo Brasileiro based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Petroleo stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Petroleo Brasileiro over a specific investment horizon. Using Petroleo Brasileiro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras from the perspective of Petroleo Brasileiro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Petroleo Brasileiro using Petroleo Brasileiro's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Petroleo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Petroleo Brasileiro's stock price.
Petroleo Brasileiro Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Petroleo Brasileiro's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Petroleo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Petroleo Brasileiro stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Petroleo Brasileiro may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Petroleo Brasileiro and may potentially protect profits, hedge Petroleo Brasileiro with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 15.3409 | Short Percent 0.0103 | Short Ratio 0.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.6 M | 50 Day MA 15.992 |
Petroleo Brasileiro Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Petroleo Brasileiro's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Petroleo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Petroleo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Petroleo Brasileiro's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Petroleo Brasileiro.
Petroleo Brasileiro Implied Volatility | 61.32 |
Petroleo Brasileiro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Petroleo Brasileiro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Petroleo Brasileiro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Petroleo Brasileiro's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Petroleo Brasileiro. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Petroleo Brasileiro to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Petroleo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Petroleo Brasileiro after-hype prediction price | USD 16.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Petroleo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.83% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Petroleo Brasileiro trading at USD 16.81, that is roughly USD 0.64 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Petroleo Brasileiro's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras options at the current volatility level of 61.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Petroleo |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Petroleo Brasileiro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Petroleo Brasileiro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Petroleo Brasileiro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Petroleo Brasileiro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Petroleo Brasileiro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Petroleo Brasileiro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Petroleo Brasileiro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Petroleo Brasileiro's historical news coverage. Petroleo Brasileiro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.57 and 19.07, respectively. We have considered Petroleo Brasileiro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Petroleo Brasileiro is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Petroleo Brasileiro is based on 3 months time horizon.
Petroleo Brasileiro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Petroleo Brasileiro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Petroleo Brasileiro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Petroleo Brasileiro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.81 | 16.82 | 0.06 |
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Petroleo Brasileiro Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Petroleo Brasileiro is traded for 16.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Petroleo is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. The volatility of related hype on Petroleo Brasileiro is about 638.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.81. The company reported the last year's revenue of 102.5 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 24.95 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 334.1 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Petroleo Brasileiro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Petroleo Brasileiro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Petroleo Brasileiro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Petroleo Brasileiro's future price movements. Getting to know how Petroleo Brasileiro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Petroleo Brasileiro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | (0.74) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.56) | 7.91 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.87 | (2.65) | 9.62 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.76) | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.02 | 1.74 | (1.62) | 5.48 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | (0.76) | 11 per month | 0.83 | 0.30 | 2.67 | (1.87) | 10.68 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.29 | 12 per month | 2.46 | 0.01 | 3.01 | (2.20) | 15.60 | |
| YPF | YPF Sociedad Anonima | 0.20 | 10 per month | 1.86 | 0.14 | 5.66 | (3.66) | 11.18 | |
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas | (0.69) | 9 per month | 2.64 | 0.05 | 6.52 | (5.21) | 21.78 | |
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | (0.40) | 10 per month | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1.68 | (1.21) | 3.93 | |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | (0.87) | 9 per month | 0.45 | 0.26 | 1.96 | (1.17) | 4.66 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | (1.02) | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.12 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 5.97 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 0.29 | 12 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 1.81 | (1.65) | 4.92 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.60 | 0.13 | 1.83 | (1.30) | 8.10 |
Petroleo Brasileiro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Petroleo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Petroleo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Petroleo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Petroleo Brasileiro Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Petroleo Brasileiro stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro based on analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Petroleo Brasileiro's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Petroleo Brasileiro's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.2 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.85 | 1.01 | 1.23 |
Story Coverage note for Petroleo Brasileiro
The number of cover stories for Petroleo Brasileiro depends on current market conditions and Petroleo Brasileiro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Petroleo Brasileiro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Petroleo Brasileiro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Petroleo Brasileiro Short Properties
Petroleo Brasileiro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Petroleo Brasileiro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Petroleo Brasileiro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Petroleo Brasileiro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.5 B |
Check out Petroleo Brasileiro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Petroleo Brasileiro information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Petroleo Brasileiro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Petroleo Stock analysis
When running Petroleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petroleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petroleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petroleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petroleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petroleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petroleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Petroleo Brasileiro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Petroleo Brasileiro. If investors know Petroleo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Petroleo Brasileiro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 6.268 | Earnings Share 3.56 | Revenue Per Share 78.634 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Petroleo Brasileiro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Petroleo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Petroleo Brasileiro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Petroleo Brasileiro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Petroleo Brasileiro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Petroleo Brasileiro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Petroleo Brasileiro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Petroleo Brasileiro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Petroleo Brasileiro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.