Penumbra Stock Price Prediction
| PEN Stock | USD 201.84 6.84 3.28% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Penumbra stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Penumbra shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Penumbra's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Penumbra and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Penumbra's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Penumbra, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Penumbra's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 12.519 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.82 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.84 | Wall Street Target Price 277.38 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Penumbra based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Penumbra stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Penumbra over a specific investment horizon. Using Penumbra hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penumbra from the perspective of Penumbra response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penumbra using Penumbra's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penumbra using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penumbra's stock price.
Penumbra Implied Volatility | 134.83 |
Penumbra's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penumbra stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penumbra's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penumbra stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penumbra's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Penumbra. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penumbra to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penumbra because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Penumbra after-hype prediction price | USD 203.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penumbra contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penumbra will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.43% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Penumbra trading at USD 201.84, that is roughly USD 17.01 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penumbra's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penumbra options at the current volatility level of 134.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Penumbra |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penumbra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Penumbra After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penumbra at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penumbra or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penumbra, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penumbra Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penumbra's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penumbra's historical news coverage. Penumbra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 201.12 and 205.98, respectively. We have considered Penumbra's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Penumbra is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penumbra is based on 3 months time horizon.
Penumbra Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penumbra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penumbra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penumbra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.43 | 1.71 | 0.88 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
201.84 | 203.55 | 0.85 |
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Penumbra Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Penumbra is traded for 201.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.88. Penumbra is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 203.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 47.0%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.85%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Penumbra is about 91.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 200.96. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.06 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 90.95 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 535.21 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Penumbra Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Penumbra Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penumbra's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penumbra's future price movements. Getting to know how Penumbra's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penumbra may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| A | Agilent Technologies | 1.40 | 9 per month | 1.44 | (0.02) | 2.26 | (2.44) | 6.31 | |
| ILMN | Illumina | 2.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.65 | (3.83) | 9.89 | |
| WAT | Waters | 1.35 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.55 | (3.04) | 7.95 | |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific | (4.99) | 8 per month | 1.28 | (0.05) | 1.80 | (1.63) | 6.87 | |
| MTD | Mettler Toledo International | (18.65) | 7 per month | 1.82 | (0.03) | 2.48 | (3.26) | 6.80 | |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories | (2.39) | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.05 | 2.87 | (2.57) | 15.05 | |
| GH | Guardant Health | (0.35) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.82 | (7.29) | 22.73 | |
| RVTY | Revvity | 0.35 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.09 | (3.33) | 8.67 |
Penumbra Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penumbra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penumbra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penumbra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Penumbra Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Penumbra stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penumbra, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penumbra based on analysis of Penumbra hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penumbra's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penumbra's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001499 | 9.55E-4 | 0.001099 | 0.00201 | Price To Sales Ratio | 14.13 | 9.94 | 9.13 | 7.88 |
Story Coverage note for Penumbra
The number of cover stories for Penumbra depends on current market conditions and Penumbra's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Penumbra is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Penumbra's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Penumbra Short Properties
Penumbra's future price predictability will typically decrease when Penumbra's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Penumbra often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Penumbra's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penumbra's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 289.2 M |
Check out Penumbra Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Penumbra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Penumbra guide.Note that the Penumbra information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Penumbra's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
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When running Penumbra's price analysis, check to measure Penumbra's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penumbra is operating at the current time. Most of Penumbra's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penumbra's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penumbra's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penumbra to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Penumbra's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penumbra. If investors know Penumbra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penumbra listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 12.519 | Earnings Share 2.32 | Revenue Per Share 27.565 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.287 | Return On Assets 0.0392 |
The market value of Penumbra is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penumbra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penumbra's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penumbra's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penumbra's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penumbra's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penumbra's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Penumbra is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penumbra's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.