Pricesmart Stock Price Prediction

PSMT Stock  USD 84.00  0.71  0.85%   
At this time, the value of RSI of PriceSmart's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling PriceSmart, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

49

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
PriceSmart stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of PriceSmart shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of PriceSmart's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PriceSmart and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PriceSmart's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PriceSmart, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PriceSmart's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.177
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.61
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.22
Wall Street Target Price
84.67
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.09
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of PriceSmart based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The PriceSmart stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on PriceSmart over a specific investment horizon. Using PriceSmart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PriceSmart from the perspective of PriceSmart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PriceSmart using PriceSmart's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PriceSmart using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PriceSmart's stock price.

PriceSmart Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in PriceSmart's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PriceSmart. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PriceSmart stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long PriceSmart may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PriceSmart and may potentially protect profits, hedge PriceSmart with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
75.7009
Short Percent
0.0735
Short Ratio
6.59
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
80.1908

PriceSmart Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to PriceSmart's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PriceSmart. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PriceSmart can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PriceSmart. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PriceSmart's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PriceSmart.

PriceSmart Implied Volatility

    
  36.33  
PriceSmart's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PriceSmart stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PriceSmart's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PriceSmart stock will not fluctuate a lot when PriceSmart's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in PriceSmart. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PriceSmart to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PriceSmart because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

PriceSmart after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 83.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PriceSmart contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PriceSmart will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.27% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With PriceSmart trading at USD 84.0, that is roughly USD 1.91 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PriceSmart's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PriceSmart options at the current volatility level of 36.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out PriceSmart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PriceSmart Stock please use our How to Invest in PriceSmart guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PriceSmart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
76.4877.8692.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
84.5285.9087.28
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
78.2686.0095.46
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.141.241.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PriceSmart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PriceSmart's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PriceSmart's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PriceSmart.

PriceSmart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PriceSmart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PriceSmart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PriceSmart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

PriceSmart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PriceSmart's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PriceSmart's historical news coverage. PriceSmart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.54 and 85.30, respectively. We have considered PriceSmart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
84.00
83.92
After-hype Price
85.30
Upside
PriceSmart is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PriceSmart is based on 3 months time horizon.

PriceSmart Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PriceSmart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PriceSmart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PriceSmart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20 
1.38
  0.08 
  0.22 
8 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
84.00
83.92
0.10 
353.85  
Notes

PriceSmart Hype Timeline

PriceSmart is at this time traded for 84.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.22. PriceSmart is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 83.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on PriceSmart is about 123.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 84.22. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of PriceSmart was at this time reported as 35.87. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.94. PriceSmart last dividend was issued on the 14th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out PriceSmart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PriceSmart Stock please use our How to Invest in PriceSmart guide.

PriceSmart Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PriceSmart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PriceSmart's future price movements. Getting to know how PriceSmart rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PriceSmart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
OLLIOllies Bargain Outlet 1.65 7 per month 1.98  0.02  3.43 (2.56) 10.49 
HDHome Depot 6.79 9 per month 0.83  0.02  2.02 (1.66) 5.22 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.17 9 per month 1.06 (0.14) 1.29 (1.34) 5.93 
PFEPfizer Inc(0.09)8 per month 0.00 (0.10) 3.28 (2.09) 6.13 
JNJJohnson Johnson 0.16 9 per month 0.66 (0.15) 1.40 (1.15) 3.70 
INTCIntel(0.79)8 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.68 (4.66) 17.12 
KOThe Coca Cola 0.57 11 per month 0.45 (0.07) 1.20 (0.81) 3.53 
AAAlcoa Corp 0.54 9 per month 3.19 (0.02) 5.35 (5.45) 15.82 
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co 1.08 9 per month 0.31  0.18  1.73 (0.92) 3.96 

PriceSmart Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PriceSmart price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PriceSmart using various technical indicators. When you analyze PriceSmart charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About PriceSmart Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of PriceSmart stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PriceSmart, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PriceSmart based on analysis of PriceSmart hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PriceSmart's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PriceSmart's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price To Sales Ratio0.480.550.640.98
Price Earnings Ratio18.5222.3920.1514.1

Story Coverage note for PriceSmart

The number of cover stories for PriceSmart depends on current market conditions and PriceSmart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PriceSmart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PriceSmart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

PriceSmart Short Properties

PriceSmart's future price predictability will typically decrease when PriceSmart's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PriceSmart often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PriceSmart's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PriceSmart's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding30.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments331.1 M
When determining whether PriceSmart is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if PriceSmart Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Pricesmart Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Pricesmart Stock:
Check out PriceSmart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PriceSmart Stock please use our How to Invest in PriceSmart guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running PriceSmart's price analysis, check to measure PriceSmart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PriceSmart is operating at the current time. Most of PriceSmart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PriceSmart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PriceSmart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PriceSmart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PriceSmart's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PriceSmart. If investors know PriceSmart will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PriceSmart listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.177
Dividend Share
0.92
Earnings Share
3.69
Revenue Per Share
147.576
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.106
The market value of PriceSmart is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PriceSmart that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PriceSmart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PriceSmart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PriceSmart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PriceSmart's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PriceSmart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PriceSmart is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PriceSmart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.