Paypal Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| PYPL Stock | USD 63.19 0.07 0.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
PayPal Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of PayPal Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of PayPal Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PayPal Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PayPal Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PayPal Holdings' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.615 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.18 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.07 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.61 | Wall Street Target Price 71.07 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of PayPal Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The PayPal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on PayPal Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using PayPal Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PayPal Holdings from the perspective of PayPal Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PayPal Holdings using PayPal Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PayPal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PayPal Holdings' stock price.
PayPal Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in PayPal Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PayPal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PayPal Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long PayPal Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PayPal Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge PayPal Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 61.5145 | Short Percent 0.0205 | Short Ratio 1.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.9 M | 50 Day MA 62.1364 |
PayPal Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PayPal Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PayPal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PayPal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PayPal Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PayPal Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PayPal Holdings.
PayPal Holdings Implied Volatility | 68.83 |
PayPal Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PayPal Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PayPal Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PayPal Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when PayPal Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in PayPal Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PayPal Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PayPal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
PayPal Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 63.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PayPal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PayPal Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.3% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With PayPal Holdings trading at USD 63.19, that is roughly USD 2.72 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PayPal Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring PayPal Holdings options at the current volatility level of 68.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
PayPal |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PayPal Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PayPal Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PayPal Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PayPal Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PayPal Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PayPal Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PayPal Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PayPal Holdings' historical news coverage. PayPal Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.84 and 65.54, respectively. We have considered PayPal Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PayPal Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PayPal Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
PayPal Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PayPal Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PayPal Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PayPal Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.19 | 63.19 | 0.00 |
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PayPal Holdings Hype Timeline
PayPal Holdings is at this time traded for 63.19. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. PayPal is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on PayPal Holdings is about 199.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.24. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of PayPal Holdings was at this time reported as 19.64. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.59. PayPal Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out PayPal Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.PayPal Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PayPal Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PayPal Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how PayPal Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PayPal Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXP | American Express | 0.70 | 7 per month | 0.64 | 0.17 | 1.88 | (1.42) | 9.91 | |
| COF | Capital One Financial | 3.29 | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.05 | 2.61 | (2.41) | 7.53 | |
| UPST | Upstart HoldingsInc | 0.99 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.47 | (7.19) | 29.87 | |
| ALLY | Ally Financial | 0.84 | 12 per month | 1.59 | 0.06 | 2.44 | (2.46) | 15.29 | |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.74 | (4.70) | 35.48 |
PayPal Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PayPal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PayPal using various technical indicators. When you analyze PayPal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About PayPal Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of PayPal Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PayPal Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings based on analysis of PayPal Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PayPal Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PayPal Holdings's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 601.17 | 593.58 | 688.97 | PTB Ratio | 10.19 | 4.05 | 4.98 |
Story Coverage note for PayPal Holdings
The number of cover stories for PayPal Holdings depends on current market conditions and PayPal Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PayPal Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PayPal Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PayPal Holdings Short Properties
PayPal Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when PayPal Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PayPal Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PayPal Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PayPal Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.1 B |
Check out PayPal Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy PayPal Stock please use our How to buy in PayPal Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for PayPal Stock analysis
When running PayPal Holdings' price analysis, check to measure PayPal Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PayPal Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of PayPal Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PayPal Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PayPal Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PayPal Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PayPal Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PayPal Holdings. If investors know PayPal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PayPal Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.615 | Earnings Share 3.84 | Revenue Per Share 26.991 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.087 | Return On Assets 0.0377 |
The market value of PayPal Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PayPal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PayPal Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PayPal Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PayPal Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PayPal Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PayPal Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PayPal Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PayPal Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.