Raymond James Financial Stock Price Prediction
RJF Stock | USD 127.54 0.40 0.31% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Raymond James Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Raymond James shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Raymond James' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Raymond James and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Raymond James' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Raymond James Financial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Raymond James' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.009 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.31 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.73 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.41 | Wall Street Target Price 133.8 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Raymond James based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Raymond stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Raymond James over a specific investment horizon. Using Raymond James hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Raymond James Financial from the perspective of Raymond James response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Raymond James using Raymond James' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Raymond using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Raymond James' stock price.
Raymond James Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Raymond James' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Raymond. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Raymond James stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Raymond James may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Raymond James and may potentially protect profits, hedge Raymond James with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 109.9265 | Short Percent 0.0258 | Short Ratio 4.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 4 M | 50 Day MA 122.4552 |
Raymond James Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Raymond James' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Raymond. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Raymond can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Raymond James Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Raymond James' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Raymond James.
Raymond James Implied Volatility | 31.22 |
Raymond James' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Raymond James Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Raymond James' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Raymond James stock will not fluctuate a lot when Raymond James' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Raymond James. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Raymond James to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Raymond because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Raymond James after-hype prediction price | USD 127.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Raymond contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Raymond James Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.95% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Raymond James trading at USD 127.54, that is roughly USD 2.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Raymond James' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Raymond James Financial options at the current volatility level of 31.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Raymond |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Raymond James' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Raymond James After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Raymond James at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Raymond James or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Raymond James, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Raymond James Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Raymond James' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Raymond James' historical news coverage. Raymond James' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.03 and 128.25, respectively. We have considered Raymond James' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Raymond James is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Raymond James Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Raymond James Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Raymond James is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Raymond James backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Raymond James, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.11 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 19 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
127.54 | 127.14 | 0.00 |
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Raymond James Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Raymond James Financial is traded for 127.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Raymond is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Raymond James is about 306.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 127.61. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Raymond James was at this time reported as 51.33. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.34. Raymond James Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.98. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of March 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 22nd of September 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Raymond James Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Raymond James Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Raymond James' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Raymond James' future price movements. Getting to know how Raymond James' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Raymond James may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
TW | Tradeweb Markets | 1.73 | 10 per month | 1.00 | (0.03) | 2.24 | (2.26) | 5.03 | |
PJT | PJT Partners | 0.53 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.42 | (2.55) | 6.64 | |
MC | Moelis Co | 1.78 | 11 per month | 1.92 | (0.04) | 3.70 | (3.22) | 9.60 | |
LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings | (1.15) | 11 per month | 1.36 | 0.06 | 1.83 | (2.09) | 9.36 | |
HLI | Houlihan Lokey | 0.85 | 7 per month | 1.10 | 0.03 | 2.56 | (1.69) | 6.54 | |
SF | Stifel Financial | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.06 | 1.97 | (1.89) | 6.83 | |
EVR | Evercore Partners | (0.61) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.09 | 2.23 | (1.73) | 5.43 | |
OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings | (0.40) | 7 per month | 1.40 | (0.06) | 2.58 | (2.51) | 6.33 | |
MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings | 1.39 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.89 | (2.92) | 20.07 | |
LAZ | Lazard | (1.01) | 8 per month | 1.58 | (0.02) | 2.94 | (2.99) | 8.99 | |
PIPR | Piper Sandler Companies | 0.92 | 12 per month | 1.58 | 0.08 | 2.68 | (2.52) | 12.35 |
Raymond James Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Raymond price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Raymond using various technical indicators. When you analyze Raymond charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Raymond James Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Raymond James stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Raymond James Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Raymond James based on analysis of Raymond James hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Raymond James's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Raymond James's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0134 | 0.0167 | 0.015 | 0.0109 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 0.97 |
Story Coverage note for Raymond James
The number of cover stories for Raymond James depends on current market conditions and Raymond James' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Raymond James is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Raymond James' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Raymond James Short Properties
Raymond James' future price predictability will typically decrease when Raymond James' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Raymond James Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Raymond James' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Raymond James' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 216.9 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.5 B |
Check out Raymond James Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
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When running Raymond James' price analysis, check to measure Raymond James' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Raymond James is operating at the current time. Most of Raymond James' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Raymond James' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Raymond James' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Raymond James to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Raymond James' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Raymond James. If investors know Raymond will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Raymond James listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.009 | Dividend Share 1.71 | Earnings Share 7.98 | Revenue Per Share 55.841 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Raymond James Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Raymond that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Raymond James' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Raymond James' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Raymond James' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Raymond James' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Raymond James' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Raymond James is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Raymond James' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.