Spirit Airlines Stock Price Prediction

SAVE Stock  USD 3.88  0.05  1.31%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Spirit Airlines' share price is approaching 41. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Spirit Airlines, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

41

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Spirit Airlines' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Spirit Airlines and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Spirit Airlines' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Spirit Airlines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Spirit Airlines' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.51)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(3.74)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(2.04)
Wall Street Target Price
3.25
Using Spirit Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Spirit Airlines from the perspective of Spirit Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Spirit Airlines using Spirit Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Spirit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Spirit Airlines' stock price.

Spirit Airlines Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Spirit Airlines' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Spirit. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Spirit Airlines stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
9.4383
Short Percent
0.2527
Short Ratio
3.42
Shares Short Prior Month
27.6 M
50 Day MA
3.7824

Spirit Airlines Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Spirit Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Spirit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Spirit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Spirit Airlines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Spirit Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Spirit Airlines.

Spirit Airlines Implied Volatility

    
  92.85  
Spirit Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Spirit Airlines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Spirit Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Spirit Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Spirit Airlines' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Spirit Airlines to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Spirit because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Spirit Airlines after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.86  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Spirit contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Spirit Airlines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.8% per day over the life of the 2024-06-28 option contract. With Spirit Airlines trading at USD 3.88, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Spirit Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Spirit Airlines options at the current volatility level of 92.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Spirit Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Spirit Stock refer to our How to Trade Spirit Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Spirit Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.767.4712.18
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.094.268.96
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.0618.7520.81
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.3-1.14-0.93
Details

Spirit Airlines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Spirit Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Spirit Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Spirit Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Spirit Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Spirit Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Spirit Airlines' historical news coverage. Spirit Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 8.57, respectively. We have considered Spirit Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.88
3.86
After-hype Price
8.57
Upside
Spirit Airlines is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Spirit Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.

Spirit Airlines Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Spirit Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Spirit Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Spirit Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
4.67
  0.02 
  0.07 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.88
3.86
0.52 
4,670  
Notes

Spirit Airlines Hype Timeline

Spirit Airlines is at this time traded for 3.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Spirit is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Spirit Airlines is about 1324.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.95. About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.4. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Spirit Airlines recorded a loss per share of 4.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of February 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Spirit Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Spirit Stock refer to our How to Trade Spirit Stock guide.

Spirit Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Spirit Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Spirit Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how Spirit Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Spirit Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AALAmerican Airlines Group(0.04)6 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.68 (3.45) 20.14 
DALDelta Air Lines 1.10 5 per month 1.26  0.12  3.01 (2.63) 7.06 
LUVSouthwest Airlines 0.20 7 per month 2.32  0.02  3.05 (3.80) 12.56 
UALUnited Airlines Holdings 0.08 8 per month 1.81  0.06  4.71 (3.14) 22.02 
SNCYSun Country Airlines 0.08 7 per month 0.00 (0.03) 5.07 (4.84) 17.18 
JBLUJetBlue Airways Corp(0.21)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.08 (4.25) 25.63 
HAHawaiian Holdings 0.40 9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.52 (1.99) 6.77 
ALGTAllegiant Travel 1.21 11 per month 0.00 (0.11) 4.44 (5.52) 13.34 

Spirit Airlines Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Spirit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Spirit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Spirit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Spirit Airlines Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Spirit Airlines stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Spirit Airlines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Spirit Airlines based on analysis of Spirit Airlines hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Spirit Airlines's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Spirit Airlines's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Graham Number45.1540.7130.9627.75
Receivables Turnover19.3821.726.124.79

Story Coverage note for Spirit Airlines

The number of cover stories for Spirit Airlines depends on current market conditions and Spirit Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Spirit Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Spirit Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Spirit Airlines Short Properties

Spirit Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Spirit Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Spirit Airlines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Spirit Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spirit Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding109.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments977.7 M

Complementary Tools for Spirit Stock analysis

When running Spirit Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Spirit Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spirit Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Spirit Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spirit Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spirit Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spirit Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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