Scotts Miracle Gro Stock Price Prediction
| SMG Stock | USD 66.74 1.22 1.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Scotts Miracle Gro stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Scotts Miracle shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Scotts Miracle's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Scotts Miracle's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Scotts Miracle Gro, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Scotts Miracle's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.17 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.79 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.85 | Wall Street Target Price 74.8 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Scotts Miracle based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Scotts stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Scotts Miracle over a specific investment horizon. Using Scotts Miracle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Scotts Miracle Gro from the perspective of Scotts Miracle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Scotts Miracle using Scotts Miracle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Scotts using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Scotts Miracle's stock price.
Scotts Miracle Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Scotts Miracle's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Scotts. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Scotts Miracle stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Scotts Miracle may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Scotts Miracle and may potentially protect profits, hedge Scotts Miracle with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 58.907 | Short Percent 0.1057 | Short Ratio 4.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 66.3614 |
Scotts Miracle Gro Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Scotts Miracle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Scotts. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Scotts can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Scotts Miracle Gro. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Scotts Miracle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Scotts Miracle.
Scotts Miracle Implied Volatility | 85.46 |
Scotts Miracle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Scotts Miracle Gro stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Scotts Miracle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Scotts Miracle stock will not fluctuate a lot when Scotts Miracle's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Scotts Miracle. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Scotts Miracle to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Scotts because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Scotts Miracle after-hype prediction price | USD 67.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Scotts contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Scotts Miracle Gro will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.34% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Scotts Miracle trading at USD 66.74, that is roughly USD 3.56 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Scotts Miracle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Scotts Miracle Gro options at the current volatility level of 85.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Scotts |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Scotts Miracle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Scotts Miracle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Scotts Miracle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Scotts Miracle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Scotts Miracle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Scotts Miracle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Scotts Miracle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Scotts Miracle's historical news coverage. Scotts Miracle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.73 and 69.77, respectively. We have considered Scotts Miracle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Scotts Miracle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Scotts Miracle Gro is based on 3 months time horizon.
Scotts Miracle Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Scotts Miracle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Scotts Miracle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Scotts Miracle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.52 | 0.71 | 0.08 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
66.74 | 67.25 | 1.04 |
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Scotts Miracle Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Scotts Miracle Gro is traded for 66.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Scotts is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 67.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 89.36%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Scotts Miracle is about 803.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.66. About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. Scotts Miracle Gro recorded a loss per share of 7.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of November 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Scotts Miracle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Scotts Miracle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Scotts Miracle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Scotts Miracle's future price movements. Getting to know how Scotts Miracle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Scotts Miracle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CTVA | Corteva | (0.03) | 10 per month | 1.09 | 0.09 | 2.69 | (1.89) | 23.64 | |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings | (1.14) | 12 per month | 1.59 | 0.01 | 2.59 | (2.44) | 9.82 | |
| AVD | American Vanguard | (0.14) | 11 per month | 2.78 | 0.05 | 4.73 | (5.38) | 31.28 | |
| IPI | Intrepid Potash | (0.12) | 11 per month | 3.23 | (0.01) | 4.49 | (4.67) | 16.61 | |
| MOS | The Mosaic | (0.04) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.22 | (2.99) | 9.55 | |
| FMC | FMC Corporation | (0.32) | 11 per month | 3.43 | (0.0004) | 3.94 | (4.77) | 22.10 | |
| NTR | Nutrien | (0.75) | 10 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 3.10 | (2.46) | 10.41 | |
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | 0.03 | 8 per month | 1.92 | 0.04 | 4.53 | (3.07) | 10.65 |
Scotts Miracle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Scotts price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Scotts using various technical indicators. When you analyze Scotts charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Scotts Miracle Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Scotts Miracle stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Scotts Miracle Gro, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle based on analysis of Scotts Miracle hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Scotts Miracle's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Scotts Miracle's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.07 | 0.0515 | 0.0464 | 0.0258 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.6 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
Story Coverage note for Scotts Miracle
The number of cover stories for Scotts Miracle depends on current market conditions and Scotts Miracle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Scotts Miracle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Scotts Miracle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Scotts Miracle Short Properties
Scotts Miracle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Scotts Miracle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Scotts Miracle Gro often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Scotts Miracle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Scotts Miracle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31.9 M |
Check out Scotts Miracle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for Scotts Stock analysis
When running Scotts Miracle's price analysis, check to measure Scotts Miracle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Scotts Miracle is operating at the current time. Most of Scotts Miracle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Scotts Miracle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Scotts Miracle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Scotts Miracle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Scotts Miracle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Scotts Miracle. If investors know Scotts will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Scotts Miracle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Dividend Share 2.64 | Earnings Share (7.04) | Revenue Per Share 61.014 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
The market value of Scotts Miracle Gro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Scotts that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Scotts Miracle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Scotts Miracle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Scotts Miracle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Scotts Miracle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Scotts Miracle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Scotts Miracle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Scotts Miracle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.