Toronto Dominion Bank Stock Price Prediction

TD Stock  USD 55.22  1.20  2.22%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Toronto Dominion's share price is approaching 41. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Toronto Dominion, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

41

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Toronto Dominion's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Toronto Dominion Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Toronto Dominion's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.20)
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.9
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.11
Wall Street Target Price
63.77
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.36
Using Toronto Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toronto Dominion Bank from the perspective of Toronto Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toronto Dominion using Toronto Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toronto using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toronto Dominion's stock price.

Toronto Dominion Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Toronto Dominion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Toronto. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Toronto Dominion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
59.2163
Short Percent
0.004
Short Ratio
2.82
Shares Short Prior Month
18.2 M
50 Day MA
56.3192

Toronto Dominion Bank Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Toronto Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toronto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toronto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toronto Dominion Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toronto Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toronto Dominion.

Toronto Dominion Implied Volatility

    
  17.01  
Toronto Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toronto Dominion Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toronto Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toronto Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toronto Dominion's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toronto Dominion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toronto because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Toronto Dominion after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 55.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toronto contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toronto Dominion Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.06% per day over the life of the 2024-07-19 option contract. With Toronto Dominion trading at USD 55.22, that is roughly USD 0.59 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toronto Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toronto Dominion Bank options at the current volatility level of 17.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.7060.6961.94
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
59.5265.4172.61
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.441.481.56
Details

Toronto Dominion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Toronto Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toronto Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toronto Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Toronto Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Toronto Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toronto Dominion's historical news coverage. Toronto Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.92 and 56.42, respectively. We have considered Toronto Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
55.22
55.17
After-hype Price
56.42
Upside
Toronto Dominion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toronto Dominion Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.

Toronto Dominion Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toronto Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toronto Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toronto Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
1.25
  0.05 
  0.01 
7 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
55.22
55.17
0.09 
290.70  
Notes

Toronto Dominion Hype Timeline

As of June 25, 2024 Toronto Dominion Bank is listed for 55.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Toronto is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Toronto Dominion is about 1029.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.21. About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.35. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toronto Dominion Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of July 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 3rd of February 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Toronto Dominion Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Toronto Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toronto Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Toronto Dominion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toronto Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SIGRFSligro Food Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
MSTSXMorningstar Unconstrained Allocation 0.00 0 per month 0.72  0.05  0.92 (1.29) 3.08 
XPOFXponential Fitness 0.06 8 per month 6.23  0.05  7.52 (4.98) 37.00 
FTLFFitLife Brands Common(0.47)5 per month 2.78  0.16  7.53 (5.50) 17.21 
AZFLAmazonas Florestal 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
LIDRAeye Inc(0.46)7 per month 7.49  0.09  24.73 (16.24) 138.75 
DALNDallasnews Corp 0.02 7 per month 0.00 (0.03) 2.45 (3.41) 10.12 

Toronto Dominion Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Toronto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toronto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toronto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Toronto Dominion Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toronto Dominion Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion based on analysis of Toronto Dominion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toronto Dominion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toronto Dominion's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.04220.04130.0371
Price To Sales Ratio3.452.672.4

Story Coverage note for Toronto Dominion

The number of cover stories for Toronto Dominion depends on current market conditions and Toronto Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toronto Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toronto Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Toronto Dominion Short Properties

Toronto Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Toronto Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toronto Dominion Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toronto Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toronto Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments138.2 B

Complementary Tools for Toronto Stock analysis

When running Toronto Dominion's price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated