Thor Industries Stock Future Price Prediction

THO Stock  USD 99.14  0.39  0.39%   
Thor Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Thor Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Thor Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Thor Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Thor Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Thor Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Thor Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Thor Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Thor Industries stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Thor Industries over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.75
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.02
Wall Street Target Price
81.1
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.81
Using Thor Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Thor Industries from the perspective of Thor Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Thor Industries using Thor Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Thor Industries using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Thor Industries' stock price.
Thor Industries Cash Flow Per Share is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Thor Industries reported last year Cash Flow Per Share of 16.60. As of 7th of February 2023, Revenue to Assets is likely to grow to 2.64, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 18.87.

Thor Industries Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Thor Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Thor Industries. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Thor Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Thor Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Thor Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Thor Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
81.0869
Short Percent
0.1315
Short Ratio
10.52
Shares Short Prior Month
6.9 M
50 Day MA
85.6874

Thor Industries Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Thor Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Thor Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Thor Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Thor Industries. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Thor Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Thor Industries.

Thor Industries Implied Volatility

    
  49.08  
Thor Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Thor Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Thor Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Thor Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Thor Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Thor Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Thor Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Thor Industries because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Thor Industries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 98.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Thor Industries contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Thor Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.07% per day over the life of the 2023-02-17 option contract. With Thor Industries trading at USD99.14, that is roughly USD3.04. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Thor Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Thor Industries options at the current volatility level of 49.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thor Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Thor Industries in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
88.88121.78124.76
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
97.31100.29103.27
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
115.00137.80150.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
78.5891.26103.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thor Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thor Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thor Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Thor Industries.

Thor Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Thor Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Thor Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Thor Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Thor Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Thor Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Thor Industries' historical news coverage. Thor Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.77 and 101.73, respectively. We have considered Thor Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 99.14
98.75
After-hype Price
101.73
Upside
Thor Industries is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Thor Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.

Thor Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Thor Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Thor Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Thor Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.41  2.98   0.50   0.00  11 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
99.1498.750.00 
244.26  

Thor Industries Hype Timeline

On the 7th of February Thor Industries is traded for 99.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.5 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Thor Industries forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Thor Industries is about 208600.0%. The volatility of related hype on Thor Industries is about 208600.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 99.14. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.23. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Thor Industries recorded earning per share (EPS) of 18.78. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of January 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Additionally, take a look at Thor Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Thor Industries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Thor Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Thor Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Thor Industries rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Thor Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Thor Industries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Thor Industries price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thor Industries using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thor Industries charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Thor Industries Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Thor Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Thor Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Thor Industries based on analysis of Thor Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Thor Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Thor Industries's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.550.490.44
Interest Coverage9.7117.0119.56

Story Coverage note for Thor Industries

The number of cover stories for Thor Industries depends on current market conditions and Thor Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Thor Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Thor Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Thor Industries Short Properties

Thor Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Thor Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Thor Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Thor Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thor Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding55.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments311.6 M
Additionally, take a look at Thor Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Thor Industries information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thor Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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Is Thor Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Thor Industries. If investors know Thor Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Thor Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42) 
Market Capitalization
5.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.21) 
Return On Assets
0.1176
Return On Equity
0.304
The market value of Thor Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Thor Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Thor Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Thor Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Thor Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Thor Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Thor Industries value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thor Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.