Ugi Corporation Stock Price Prediction
| UGI Stock | USD 26.00 0.47 1.84% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
UGI Corporation stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of UGI shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of UGI's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of UGI and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from UGI's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UGI Corporation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting UGI's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.76 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.85 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.97 | Wall Street Target Price 31 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of UGI based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The UGI stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UGI over a specific investment horizon. Using UGI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UGI Corporation from the perspective of UGI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UGI using UGI's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UGI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UGI's stock price.
UGI Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UGI's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UGI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UGI stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long UGI may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UGI and may potentially protect profits, hedge UGI with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.6365 | Short Percent 0.0312 | Short Ratio 2.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.8 M | 50 Day MA 24.4216 |
UGI Corporation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UGI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UGI Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UGI's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UGI.
UGI Implied Volatility | 37.47 |
UGI's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UGI Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UGI's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UGI stock will not fluctuate a lot when UGI's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in UGI. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UGI to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UGI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
UGI after-hype prediction price | USD 25.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
UGI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UGI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UGI After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UGI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UGI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UGI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UGI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UGI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UGI's historical news coverage. UGI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.34 and 28.46, respectively. We have considered UGI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UGI is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UGI Corporation is based on 3 months time horizon.
UGI Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UGI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UGI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UGI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.58 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.00 | 25.90 | 0.38 |
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UGI Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April UGI Corporation is traded for 26.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. UGI is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.38%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on UGI is about 1155.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.05. About 84.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.16. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UGI Corporation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.65. The entity recorded a loss per share of 2.18. The firm last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. UGI had 3:2 split on the 8th of September 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out UGI Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.UGI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UGI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UGI's future price movements. Getting to know how UGI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UGI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.22 | (0.01) | 2.05 | (1.99) | 7.11 | |
| ATO | Atmos Energy | 0.20 | 12 per month | 0.75 | (0.02) | 1.99 | (1.61) | 4.71 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.50 | 6 per month | 1.54 | (0) | 2.24 | (2.57) | 7.29 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.48) | 7 per month | 1.04 | (0.01) | 2.36 | (2.15) | 7.42 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 0.10 | 8 per month | 2.36 | (0.02) | 2.98 | (2.70) | 17.15 | |
| OGS | One Gas | (0.17) | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.04 | 2.60 | (2.16) | 7.90 | |
| NIMC | NiSource Unit | 1.30 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.93 | |
| UGIC | UGI Corp Unit | (0.27) | 2 per month | 1.66 | 0.07 | 3.43 | (3.09) | 15.28 | |
| NI | NiSource | (0.19) | 13 per month | 0.74 | 0.06 | 1.82 | (1.37) | 3.89 |
UGI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze UGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About UGI Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of UGI stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UGI Corporation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UGI based on analysis of UGI hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UGI's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UGI's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0436 | 0.0734 | 0.0747 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.56 |
Story Coverage note for UGI
The number of cover stories for UGI depends on current market conditions and UGI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UGI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UGI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UGI Short Properties
UGI's future price predictability will typically decrease when UGI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UGI Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UGI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UGI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 241 M |
Check out UGI Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the UGI Corporation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UGI's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for UGI Stock analysis
When running UGI's price analysis, check to measure UGI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UGI is operating at the current time. Most of UGI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UGI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UGI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UGI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UGI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UGI. If investors know UGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UGI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 1.485 | Earnings Share (2.18) | Revenue Per Share 39.52 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of UGI Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UGI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UGI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UGI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UGI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UGI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UGI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UGI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.