Union Stock Future Price Prediction

UNP Stock  USD 207.93  3.74  1.83%   
Union Pacific stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Union Pacific shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Union Pacific's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Union Pacific and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Union Pacific's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Union Pacific, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Union Pacific Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Union Pacific based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Union stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Union Pacific over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.002
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.68
EPS Estimate Current Year
11.57
EPS Estimate Next Year
12.67
Wall Street Target Price
221.78
Using Union Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Union Pacific from the perspective of Union Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Union Pacific using Union Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Union using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Union Pacific's stock price.
Union Pacific Accrued Expenses Turnover is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Union Pacific reported last year Accrued Expenses Turnover of 15.82. As of 2nd of February 2023, Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to grow to 14.36, while Cash Flow Per Share is likely to drop 10.59.

Union Pacific Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Union Pacific's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Union. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Union Pacific stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Union Pacific may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Union Pacific and may potentially protect profits, hedge Union Pacific with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
215.5789
Short Percent
0.0085
Short Ratio
2.19
Shares Short Prior Month
5.7 M
50 Day MA
210.0718

Union Pacific Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Union Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Union. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Union can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Union Pacific. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Union Pacific's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Union Pacific.

Union Pacific Implied Volatility

    
  36.12  
Union Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Union Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Union Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Union Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Union Pacific's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Union Pacific. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Union Pacific to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Union because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Union Pacific after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 208.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Union contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Union Pacific will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.26% per day over the life of the 2023-02-03 option contract. With Union Pacific trading at USD207.93, that is roughly USD4.69. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Union Pacific's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Union Pacific options at the current volatility level of 36.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Union Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Union Pacific in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
187.14230.87232.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
200.05201.69203.34
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
215.00255.58290.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
198.96207.86216.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Union Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Union Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Union Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Union Pacific.

Union Pacific After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Union Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Union Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Union Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Union Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Union Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Union Pacific's historical news coverage. Union Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 206.39 and 209.67, respectively. We have considered Union Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 207.93
206.39
Downside
208.03
After-hype Price
209.67
Upside
Union Pacific is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Union Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.

Union Pacific Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Union Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Union Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Union Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.12  1.64  0.09    0.01  5 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
207.93208.030.05 
221.62  

Union Pacific Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of February Union Pacific is traded for 207.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Union is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 208.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.05% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Union Pacific is about 1551.35% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 207.92. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.86 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 7 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.45 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days.
Also, please take a look at Union Pacific Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Union Pacific Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Union Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Union Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how Union Pacific rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Union Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Union Pacific Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Union price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Union using various technical indicators. When you analyze Union charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Union Pacific Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Union Pacific stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Union Pacific, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Union Pacific based on analysis of Union Pacific hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Union Pacific's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Union Pacific's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 2023 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.511.951.751.89
Interest Coverage6.948.119.3211.17

Story Coverage note for Union Pacific

The number of cover stories for Union Pacific depends on current market conditions and Union Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Union Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Union Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Union Pacific Short Properties

Union Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when Union Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Union Pacific often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Union Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding633.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B
Also, please take a look at Union Pacific Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Union Pacific price analysis, check to measure Union Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Union Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Union Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Pacific. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.002
Market Capitalization
127.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.078
Return On Assets
0.0961
Return On Equity
0.5317
The market value of Union Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Union Pacific value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.