Vacasa Inc Stock Price Prediction

VCSA Stock  USD 9.44  0.06  0.64%   
The relative strength indicator of Vacasa's stock price is about 61. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling a stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

61

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Vacasa Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Vacasa shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Vacasa's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Vacasa and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Vacasa's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vacasa Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Vacasa's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.11)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(4.64)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(27.81)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(4.42)
Wall Street Target Price
10.9
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Vacasa based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Vacasa stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Vacasa over a specific investment horizon. Using Vacasa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vacasa Inc from the perspective of Vacasa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vacasa using Vacasa's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vacasa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vacasa's stock price.

Vacasa Implied Volatility

    
  10.38  
Vacasa's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vacasa Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vacasa's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vacasa stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vacasa's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Vacasa. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vacasa to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vacasa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Vacasa after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.44  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Vacasa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vacasa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vacasa in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.437.4511.47
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.808.8212.85
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
32.7636.0039.96
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-7-6.34-6.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vacasa. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vacasa's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vacasa's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vacasa Inc.

Vacasa After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Vacasa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vacasa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vacasa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Vacasa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Vacasa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vacasa's historical news coverage. Vacasa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.42 and 13.46, respectively. We have considered Vacasa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.44
9.44
After-hype Price
13.46
Upside
Vacasa is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vacasa Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Vacasa Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vacasa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vacasa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vacasa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.60 
3.97
  0.02 
  0.15 
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.44
9.44
0.00 
13,233  
Notes

Vacasa Hype Timeline

Vacasa Inc is at this time traded for 9.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Vacasa projected not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis projected to be very small whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.6%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Vacasa is about 1536.77%. The volatility of related hype on Vacasa is about 1536.77% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 9.59. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.62. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vacasa Inc recorded a loss per share of 35.73. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 3rd of October 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Vacasa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Vacasa Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Vacasa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vacasa's future price movements. Getting to know how Vacasa rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vacasa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Vacasa Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vacasa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vacasa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vacasa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Vacasa Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Vacasa stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vacasa Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vacasa based on analysis of Vacasa hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vacasa's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vacasa's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Vacasa

The number of cover stories for Vacasa depends on current market conditions and Vacasa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vacasa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vacasa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Vacasa Short Properties

Vacasa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vacasa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vacasa Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vacasa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vacasa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments157.8 M
When determining whether Vacasa Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vacasa's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vacasa Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vacasa Inc Stock:
Check out Vacasa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Vacasa Stock analysis

When running Vacasa's price analysis, check to measure Vacasa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vacasa is operating at the current time. Most of Vacasa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vacasa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vacasa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vacasa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vacasa's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vacasa. If investors know Vacasa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vacasa listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.11)
Earnings Share
(35.73)
Revenue Per Share
96.496
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.08)
Return On Assets
(0.04)
The market value of Vacasa Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vacasa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vacasa's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vacasa's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vacasa's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vacasa's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vacasa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vacasa is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vacasa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.