Viavi Solutions Stock Price Prediction

VIAV Stock  USD 9.09  0.49  5.11%   
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Viavi Solutions' share price is approaching 48. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Viavi Solutions, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

48

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Viavi Solutions stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Viavi Solutions shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Viavi Solutions' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Viavi Solutions and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Viavi Solutions' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Viavi Solutions, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Viavi Solutions' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.09
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.38
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.56
Wall Street Target Price
13.17
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Viavi Solutions based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Viavi stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Viavi Solutions over a specific investment horizon. Using Viavi Solutions hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Viavi Solutions from the perspective of Viavi Solutions response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Viavi Solutions using Viavi Solutions' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Viavi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Viavi Solutions' stock price.

Viavi Solutions Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Viavi Solutions' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Viavi. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Viavi Solutions stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Viavi Solutions may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Viavi Solutions and may potentially protect profits, hedge Viavi Solutions with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
9.6169
Short Percent
0.0411
Short Ratio
2.98
Shares Short Prior Month
5.9 M
50 Day MA
9.802

Viavi Solutions Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Viavi Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Viavi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Viavi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Viavi Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Viavi Solutions' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Viavi Solutions.

Viavi Solutions Implied Volatility

    
  34.57  
Viavi Solutions' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Viavi Solutions stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Viavi Solutions' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Viavi Solutions stock will not fluctuate a lot when Viavi Solutions' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Viavi Solutions. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Viavi Solutions to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Viavi because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Viavi Solutions after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.09  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Viavi contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Viavi Solutions will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.16% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Viavi Solutions trading at USD 9.09, that is roughly USD 0.2 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Viavi Solutions' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Viavi Solutions options at the current volatility level of 34.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Viavi Solutions Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Viavi Stock please use our How to Invest in Viavi Solutions guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Viavi Solutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.889.0912.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.528.7211.93
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.0112.1013.43
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.070.070.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Viavi Solutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Viavi Solutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Viavi Solutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Viavi Solutions.

Viavi Solutions After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Viavi Solutions at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Viavi Solutions or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Viavi Solutions, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Viavi Solutions Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Viavi Solutions' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Viavi Solutions' historical news coverage. Viavi Solutions' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.88 and 12.30, respectively. We have considered Viavi Solutions' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.09
9.09
After-hype Price
12.30
Upside
Viavi Solutions is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Viavi Solutions is based on 3 months time horizon.

Viavi Solutions Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Viavi Solutions is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Viavi Solutions backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Viavi Solutions, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
3.23
 0.00  
  0.01 
10 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.09
9.09
0.00 
8,075  
Notes

Viavi Solutions Hype Timeline

Viavi Solutions is at this time traded for 9.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Viavi is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Viavi Solutions is about 2414.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.08. About 97.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Viavi Solutions was at this time reported as 3.27. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.41. Viavi Solutions had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1758:1000 split on the 4th of August 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Viavi Solutions Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Viavi Stock please use our How to Invest in Viavi Solutions guide.

Viavi Solutions Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Viavi Solutions' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Viavi Solutions' future price movements. Getting to know how Viavi Solutions rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Viavi Solutions may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HPPHudson Pacific Properties(0.12)10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 4.82 (6.34) 21.57 
WEYSWeyco Group(2.02)6 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.05 (3.29) 10.00 
PSTLPostal Realty Trust 0.01 9 per month 0.99 (0.13) 1.65 (1.22) 4.97 
FIGIFreedom Internet Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
SSYSStratasys(0.06)9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.43 (3.95) 17.93 
SPHRSphere Entertainment Co 1.12 11 per month 1.70  0.16  6.15 (2.90) 14.51 
UMGNFUniversal Music Group 0.00 0 per month 1.46 (0.02) 2.18 (2.78) 6.82 
CSIOYCasio Computer Co 0.00 0 per month 2.20 (0.02) 3.65 (3.53) 9.04 

Viavi Solutions Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Viavi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Viavi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Viavi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Viavi Solutions Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Viavi Solutions stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Viavi Solutions, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Viavi Solutions based on analysis of Viavi Solutions hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Viavi Solutions's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Viavi Solutions's related companies.
 2010 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0031048.0E-57.6E-5
Price To Sales Ratio2.982.644.26

Story Coverage note for Viavi Solutions

The number of cover stories for Viavi Solutions depends on current market conditions and Viavi Solutions' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Viavi Solutions is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Viavi Solutions' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Viavi Solutions Short Properties

Viavi Solutions' future price predictability will typically decrease when Viavi Solutions' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Viavi Solutions often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Viavi Solutions' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Viavi Solutions' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding226.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments521.1 M
When determining whether Viavi Solutions is a strong investment it is important to analyze Viavi Solutions' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Viavi Solutions' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Viavi Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Viavi Solutions Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Viavi Stock please use our How to Invest in Viavi Solutions guide.
Note that the Viavi Solutions information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Viavi Solutions' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Viavi Solutions' price analysis, check to measure Viavi Solutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Viavi Solutions is operating at the current time. Most of Viavi Solutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Viavi Solutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Viavi Solutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Viavi Solutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Viavi Solutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Viavi Solutions. If investors know Viavi will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Viavi Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73)
Earnings Share
0.02
Revenue Per Share
4.553
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.166
Return On Assets
0.0133
The market value of Viavi Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Viavi that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Viavi Solutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Viavi Solutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Viavi Solutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Viavi Solutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Viavi Solutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Viavi Solutions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Viavi Solutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.