Vivint Stock Future Price Prediction

VVNT -  USA Stock  

USD 8.75  0.25  2.78%

Vivint Smart Home stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Vivint Smart shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Vivint Smart's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Vivint Smart and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Vivint Smart's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vivint Smart Home, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Vivint Smart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Vivint Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Vivint Smart based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Vivint stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Vivint Smart over a specific investment horizon. Using Vivint Smart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vivint Smart Home from the perspective of Vivint Smart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Vivint Smart. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vivint Smart to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vivint because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Vivint Smart after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 8.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivint Smart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vivint Smart in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.857.3510.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
5.959.4512.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.228.959.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vivint Smart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vivint Smart's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vivint Smart's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vivint Smart Home.

Vivint Smart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Vivint Smart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vivint Smart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Vivint Smart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Vivint Smart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Vivint Smart's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vivint Smart's historical news coverage. Vivint Smart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.18 and 12.18, respectively. We have considered Vivint Smart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
8.75
24th of October 2021
8.68
After-hype Price
12.18
Upside
Vivint Smart is slightly risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vivint Smart Home is based on 3 months time horizon.

Vivint Smart Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Vivint Smart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vivint Smart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vivint Smart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.47  3.50  0.07   0.92  8 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
8.758.680.80 
2,500  

Vivint Smart Hype Timeline

Vivint Smart Home is at this time traded for 8.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.92. Vivint is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 8.68. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.8% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Vivint Smart is about 179.03% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 7.83. About 86.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.47. Vivint Smart Home had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimatedpress releasewill be in about 8 days.
Also, please take a look at Vivint Smart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Vivint Smart Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Vivint Smart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vivint Smart's future price movements. Getting to know how Vivint Smart rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vivint Smart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Vivint Smart Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vivint price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vivint using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vivint charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Vivint Smart Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Vivint Smart stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vivint Smart Home, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vivint Smart based on analysis of Vivint Smart hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vivint Smart's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vivint Smart's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Vivint Smart

The number of cover stories for Vivint Smart depends on current market conditions and Vivint Smart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vivint Smart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vivint Smart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Vivint Smart Short Properties

Vivint Smart's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vivint Smart's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vivint Smart Home often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vivint Smart's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vivint Smart's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.29%
Short Percent Of Float4.10%
Float Shares31.23M
Shares Short Prior Month3.2M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day725.79k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month468.33k
Date Short Interest15th of September 2021
Also, please take a look at Vivint Smart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Vivint Smart Home information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vivint Smart's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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The market value of Vivint Smart Home is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vivint that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vivint Smart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vivint Smart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vivint Smart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vivint Smart Home underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vivint Smart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vivint Smart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vivint Smart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.