Warner Music Group Stock Price Prediction
| WMG Stock | USD 33.11 0.19 0.57% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Warner Music Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Warner Music shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Warner Music's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Warner Music and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Warner Music's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Warner Music Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Warner Music's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.305 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.27 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.19 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.46 | Wall Street Target Price 37.6 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Warner Music based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Warner stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Warner Music over a specific investment horizon. Using Warner Music hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Warner Music Group from the perspective of Warner Music response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Warner Music using Warner Music's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Warner using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Warner Music's stock price.
Warner Music Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Warner Music's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Warner. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Warner Music stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Warner Music may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Warner Music and may potentially protect profits, hedge Warner Music with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.1054 | Short Percent 0.0319 | Short Ratio 3.19 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 34.36 |
Warner Music Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Warner Music's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Warner. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Warner can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Warner Music Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Warner Music's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Warner Music.
Warner Music Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Warner Music's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Warner Music Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Warner Music's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Warner Music stock will not fluctuate a lot when Warner Music's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Warner Music. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Warner Music to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Warner because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Warner Music after-hype prediction price | USD 33.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Warner contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Warner Music Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Warner Music trading at USD 33.11, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Warner Music's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Warner Music Group options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Warner |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Warner Music's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Warner Music After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Warner Music at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Warner Music or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Warner Music, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Warner Music Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Warner Music's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Warner Music's historical news coverage. Warner Music's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.70 and 34.98, respectively. We have considered Warner Music's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Warner Music is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Warner Music Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Warner Music Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Warner Music is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Warner Music backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Warner Music, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.64 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.11 | 33.34 | 0.12 |
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Warner Music Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 Warner Music Group is traded for 33.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Warner is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Warner Music is about 1093.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.13. The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.04 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 430 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.84 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Warner Music Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Warner Music Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Warner Music's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Warner Music's future price movements. Getting to know how Warner Music's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Warner Music may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROKU | Roku Inc | 0.60 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.57 | (4.98) | 30.34 | |
| PARA | Paramount Global Class | (0.77) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.68 | (5.87) | 23.47 | |
| WBD | Warner Bros Discovery | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.89 | (4.22) | 14.33 | |
| PARAA | Paramount Global Class | 0.85 | 10 per month | 2.96 | 0.06 | 4.94 | (5.52) | 29.79 |
Warner Music Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Warner price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Warner using various technical indicators. When you analyze Warner charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Warner Music Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Warner Music stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Warner Music Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Warner Music based on analysis of Warner Music hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Warner Music's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Warner Music's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0266 | 0.021 | 0.0241 | 0.0431 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.02 | 2.68 | 4.48 | 3.94 |
Story Coverage note for Warner Music
The number of cover stories for Warner Music depends on current market conditions and Warner Music's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Warner Music is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Warner Music's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Warner Music Short Properties
Warner Music's future price predictability will typically decrease when Warner Music's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Warner Music Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Warner Music's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Warner Music's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 515.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 641 M |
Check out Warner Music Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Warner Stock analysis
When running Warner Music's price analysis, check to measure Warner Music's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Warner Music is operating at the current time. Most of Warner Music's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Warner Music's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Warner Music's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Warner Music to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
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| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |
Is Warner Music's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Warner Music. If investors know Warner will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Warner Music listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.305 | Dividend Share 0.66 | Earnings Share 0.89 | Revenue Per Share 12.202 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.175 |
The market value of Warner Music Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Warner that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Warner Music's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Warner Music's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Warner Music's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Warner Music's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Warner Music's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Warner Music is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Warner Music's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.