Advanced Stock Future Price Prediction

WMS
 Stock
  

USD 90.08  0.08  0.09%   

Advanced Drainage Systems stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Advanced Drainage shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Advanced Drainage's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Advanced Drainage and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Advanced Drainage's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advanced Drainage Systems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Check out Advanced Drainage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Advanced Drainage based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Advanced stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Advanced Drainage over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.045
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.32
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.48
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.79
Wall Street Target Price
120.83
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.9
Using Advanced Drainage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advanced Drainage Systems from the perspective of Advanced Drainage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Advanced Drainage using Advanced Drainage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Advanced using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Advanced Drainage's stock price.
Advanced Drainage Cash Flow Per Share is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advanced Drainage reported last year Cash Flow Per Share of 3.80. As of 12/06/2022, Revenue to Assets is likely to grow to 1.19, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 8.43.

Advanced Drainage Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Advanced Drainage's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Advanced. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Advanced Drainage stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Advanced Drainage may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Advanced Drainage and may potentially protect profits, hedge Advanced Drainage with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
113.0782
Short Percent
0.0529
Short Ratio
3.05
Shares Short Prior Month
2.3 M
50 Day MA
109.146
Shares Short
3.3 M

Advanced Drainage Systems Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Advanced Drainage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Advanced. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advanced can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advanced Drainage Systems. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Advanced Drainage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Advanced Drainage.

Advanced Drainage Implied Volatility

    
  53.52  
Advanced Drainage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advanced Drainage Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advanced Drainage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advanced Drainage stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advanced Drainage's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Advanced Drainage. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advanced Drainage to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advanced because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Advanced Drainage after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 87.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Advanced contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Advanced Drainage Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.35% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Advanced Drainage trading at USD90.08, that is roughly USD3.01. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Advanced Drainage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Advanced Drainage Systems options at the current volatility level of 53.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advanced Drainage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advanced Drainage in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
81.07109.89114.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
89.1693.4997.81
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
120.00136.00162.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.773.773.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advanced Drainage. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advanced Drainage's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advanced Drainage's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advanced Drainage Systems.

Advanced Drainage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Advanced Drainage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advanced Drainage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advanced Drainage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Advanced Drainage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Advanced Drainage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advanced Drainage's historical news coverage. Advanced Drainage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.77 and 91.43, respectively. We have considered Advanced Drainage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 90.08
87.10
After-hype Price
91.43
Upside
Advanced Drainage is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advanced Drainage Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.

Advanced Drainage Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Advanced Drainage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Drainage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Drainage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.54  4.33   2.98   0.38  4 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
90.0887.103.31 
78.58  

Advanced Drainage Hype Timeline

On the 6th of December Advanced Drainage Systems is traded for 90.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.98 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.38. Advanced is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 87.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 78.58%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -3.31% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.54%. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Drainage is about 607.72% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 90.46. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.66. Advanced Drainage Systems recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.42. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. The firm had 3:2 split on the June 15, 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Advanced Drainage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Advanced Drainage Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Advanced Drainage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advanced Drainage's future price movements. Getting to know how Advanced Drainage rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advanced Drainage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Advanced Drainage Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Advanced Drainage Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Advanced Drainage stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advanced Drainage Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advanced Drainage based on analysis of Advanced Drainage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advanced Drainage's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advanced Drainage's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.561.470.85
Interest Coverage7.159.7812.38

Story Coverage note for Advanced Drainage

The number of cover stories for Advanced Drainage depends on current market conditions and Advanced Drainage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advanced Drainage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advanced Drainage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Advanced Drainage Short Properties

Advanced Drainage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advanced Drainage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advanced Drainage Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advanced Drainage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advanced Drainage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71566000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments20125000.00
Check out Advanced Drainage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Is Advanced Drainage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advanced Drainage. If investors know Advanced will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advanced Drainage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.045
Market Capitalization
7.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.252
Return On Assets
0.1538
Return On Equity
0.4648
The market value of Advanced Drainage Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advanced that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advanced Drainage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advanced Drainage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advanced Drainage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advanced Drainage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advanced Drainage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advanced Drainage value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advanced Drainage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.