Xcel Brands Stock Price Prediction
| XELB Stock | USD 0.70 0.03 4.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Xcel Brands stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Xcel Brands shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Xcel Brands' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Xcel Brands and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Xcel Brands' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Xcel Brands, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Xcel Brands' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.11) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.30) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.12 | Wall Street Target Price 3 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.25) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Xcel Brands based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Xcel stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Xcel Brands over a specific investment horizon. Using Xcel Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xcel Brands from the perspective of Xcel Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Xcel Brands. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Xcel Brands to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Xcel because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Xcel Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 0.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Xcel |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xcel Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Xcel Brands After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xcel Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xcel Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xcel Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xcel Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xcel Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xcel Brands' historical news coverage. Xcel Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 5.85, respectively. We have considered Xcel Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xcel Brands is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xcel Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xcel Brands Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xcel Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xcel Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xcel Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.06 | 5.17 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.70 | 0.68 | 2.86 |
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Xcel Brands Hype Timeline
Xcel Brands is at this time traded for 0.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Xcel is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.68. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.86%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -1.06%. The volatility of related hype on Xcel Brands is about 10884.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.65. About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.31. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Xcel Brands has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.74. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.02. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Xcel Brands had 31:16137 split on the 29th of September 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Xcel Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Xcel Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xcel Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xcel Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Xcel Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xcel Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TALN | Talon International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.24 | 0.04 | 7.69 | (7.14) | 61.43 | |
| HNNMY | H M Hennes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.21 | (3.35) | 20.44 | |
| UA | Under Armour C | (0.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.70 | (2.99) | 15.25 | |
| HMRZF | H M Hennes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | (3.56) | 29.81 | |
| RYPPF | RYU Apparel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 11.75 | 0.02 | 31.15 | (28.24) | 136.36 | |
| OXM | Oxford Industries | (1.00) | 6 per month | 2.01 | 0.03 | 3.29 | (3.67) | 10.59 | |
| VNCE | Vince Holding Corp | 0.05 | 4 per month | 3.44 | (0.01) | 5.47 | (5.66) | 22.11 | |
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.22 | 6 per month | 3.03 | 0.05 | 5.34 | (3.16) | 22.90 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 0.22 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.96 | (2.63) | 8.20 | |
| GIL | Gildan Activewear | (0.05) | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.62 | (2.07) | 12.23 | |
| GIII | G III Apparel Group | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.67 | (4.72) | 17.12 | |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.32 | (3.45) | 13.13 |
Xcel Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xcel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xcel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xcel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Xcel Brands Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Xcel Brands stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Xcel Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Xcel Brands based on analysis of Xcel Brands hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Xcel Brands's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Xcel Brands's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 1.71 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 1.91 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 115.48 | 130.13 | 149.65 | 142.17 |
Story Coverage note for Xcel Brands
The number of cover stories for Xcel Brands depends on current market conditions and Xcel Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xcel Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xcel Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xcel Brands Short Properties
Xcel Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Xcel Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xcel Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xcel Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xcel Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M |
Check out Xcel Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Xcel Stock refer to our How to Trade Xcel Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Xcel Stock analysis
When running Xcel Brands' price analysis, check to measure Xcel Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xcel Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Xcel Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xcel Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xcel Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xcel Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Xcel Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xcel Brands. If investors know Xcel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xcel Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.02) | Revenue Per Share 0.993 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.41) | Return On Assets (0.16) | Return On Equity (0.33) |
The market value of Xcel Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xcel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xcel Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xcel Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xcel Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xcel Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xcel Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xcel Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xcel Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.