Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

Measurement

Percent

Indicator Type or Source

Nation Indicator

Period End Date

February 1, 2024

Clasification

Nation

Embargo

Inflation

Black Monday

Oil Shock

Dot-com Bubble

Housing Crash

Credit Downgrade

Yuan Drop

Covid

Smoothed US Recession Probabilities is an economic indicator measured in Percent. It covers the period from Thursday, April 24, 1969, to Thursday, February 1, 2024, and is updated monthly. Please note, smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm). Please view all Nation indicators for more information or continue to All Top Economic Indicators.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (fred.stlouisfed.org)

55-Year History of Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

The above interactive chart and the table below show the 55-year history of smoothed us recession probabilities going back to Thursday, April 24, 1969. The current value is 1.48 which was updated on Thursday, February 1, 2024. Historical data is often used in econometric models to forecast future economic conditions. These forecasts can influence a wide range of decisions, from monetary policy at central banks to investment strategies at businesses and financial institutions.

Feb 1, 2024	1.48
Jan 1, 2024	1.38
Dec 1, 2023	0.48
Nov 1, 2023	0.16
Oct 1, 2023	0.34
Sep 1, 2023	0.14
Aug 1, 2023	0.12
Jul 1, 2023	0.06
Jun 1, 2023	0.24
May 1, 2023	0.18
Apr 1, 2023	0.16
Mar 1, 2023	0.22
Feb 1, 2023	0.2
Jan 1, 2023	0.12
Dec 1, 2022	1.48
Nov 1, 2022	1.08
Oct 1, 2022	0.52
Sep 1, 2022	0.16
Aug 1, 2022	0.02
Jul 1, 2022	0.04
Jun 1, 2022	0.14
May 1, 2022	0.32
Apr 1, 2022	0.14
Mar 1, 2022	0.02
Feb 1, 2022	0.1
Jan 1, 2022	0.4
Dec 1, 2021	0.42
Nov 1, 2021	0.0
Oct 1, 2021	0.0
Sep 1, 2021	0.6
Aug 1, 2021	0.42
Jul 1, 2021	0.0
Jun 1, 2021	0.0
May 1, 2021	0.0
Apr 1, 2021	0.06
Mar 1, 2021	0.0
Feb 1, 2021	0.0
Jan 1, 2021	0.0
Dec 1, 2020	0.02
Nov 1, 2020	0.22
Oct 1, 2020	0.02
Sep 1, 2020	0.0
Aug 1, 2020	0.0
Jul 1, 2020	0.0
Jun 1, 2020	0.04
May 1, 2020	0.04
Apr 1, 2020	100.0
Mar 1, 2020	100.0
Feb 1, 2020	0.12
Jan 1, 2020	0.24
Dec 1, 2019	0.62
Nov 1, 2019	0.52
Oct 1, 2019	1.66
Sep 1, 2019	1.06
Aug 1, 2019	0.26
Jul 1, 2019	0.42
Jun 1, 2019	0.3
May 1, 2019	0.4
Apr 1, 2019	0.7
Mar 1, 2019	0.68
Feb 1, 2019	0.84
Jan 1, 2019	1.1
Dec 1, 2018	0.22
Nov 1, 2018	0.2
Oct 1, 2018	0.2
Sep 1, 2018	0.14
Aug 1, 2018	0.02
Jul 1, 2018	0.04
Jun 1, 2018	0.0
May 1, 2018	0.24
Apr 1, 2018	0.04
Mar 1, 2018	0.0
Feb 1, 2018	0.0
Jan 1, 2018	0.14
Dec 1, 2017	0.02
Nov 1, 2017	0.0
Oct 1, 2017	0.0
Sep 1, 2017	0.04
Aug 1, 2017	0.16
Jul 1, 2017	0.18
Jun 1, 2017	0.0
May 1, 2017	0.0
Apr 1, 2017	0.02
Mar 1, 2017	0.02
Feb 1, 2017	0.1
Jan 1, 2017	0.1
Dec 1, 2016	0.02
Nov 1, 2016	0.16
Oct 1, 2016	0.1
Sep 1, 2016	0.08
Aug 1, 2016	0.16
Jul 1, 2016	0.04
Jun 1, 2016	0.06
May 1, 2016	0.3
Apr 1, 2016	0.2
Mar 1, 2016	0.64
Feb 1, 2016	0.5
Jan 1, 2016	0.34
Dec 1, 2015	0.62
Nov 1, 2015	0.98
Oct 1, 2015	0.72
Sep 1, 2015	0.48
Aug 1, 2015	0.38
Jul 1, 2015	0.32
Jun 1, 2015	0.62
May 1, 2015	0.72
Apr 1, 2015	0.6
Mar 1, 2015	0.9
Feb 1, 2015	1.0
Jan 1, 2015	0.82
Dec 1, 2014	0.16
Nov 1, 2014	0.02
Oct 1, 2014	0.04
Sep 1, 2014	0.06
Aug 1, 2014	0.12
Jul 1, 2014	0.06
Jun 1, 2014	0.02
May 1, 2014	0.06
Apr 1, 2014	0.06
Mar 1, 2014	0.0
Feb 1, 2014	0.02
Jan 1, 2014	0.2
Dec 1, 2013	0.12
Nov 1, 2013	0.0
Oct 1, 2013	0.1
Sep 1, 2013	0.06
Aug 1, 2013	0.08
Jul 1, 2013	0.14
Jun 1, 2013	0.06
May 1, 2013	0.02
Apr 1, 2013	0.04
Mar 1, 2013	0.02
Feb 1, 2013	0.08
Jan 1, 2013	0.08
Dec 1, 2012	0.04
Nov 1, 2012	0.0
Oct 1, 2012	0.08
Sep 1, 2012	0.1
Aug 1, 2012	0.26
Jul 1, 2012	0.2
Jun 1, 2012	0.18
May 1, 2012	0.1
Apr 1, 2012	0.06
Mar 1, 2012	0.26
Feb 1, 2012	0.02
Jan 1, 2012	0.02
Dec 1, 2011	0.0
Nov 1, 2011	0.06
Oct 1, 2011	0.04
Sep 1, 2011	0.12
Aug 1, 2011	0.0
Jul 1, 2011	0.04
Jun 1, 2011	0.02
May 1, 2011	0.1
Apr 1, 2011	0.16
Mar 1, 2011	0.04
Feb 1, 2011	0.16
Jan 1, 2011	0.06
Dec 1, 2010	0.06
Nov 1, 2010	0.12
Oct 1, 2010	0.06
Sep 1, 2010	0.06
Aug 1, 2010	0.08
Jul 1, 2010	0.08
Jun 1, 2010	0.5
May 1, 2010	0.02
Apr 1, 2010	0.0
Mar 1, 2010	0.0
Feb 1, 2010	0.04
Jan 1, 2010	0.02
Dec 1, 2009	0.1
Nov 1, 2009	0.1
Oct 1, 2009	0.24
Sep 1, 2009	0.4
Aug 1, 2009	0.88
Jul 1, 2009	3.78
Jun 1, 2009	64.54
May 1, 2009	89.5
Apr 1, 2009	97.84
Mar 1, 2009	99.88
Feb 1, 2009	99.9
Jan 1, 2009	100.0
Dec 1, 2008	100.0
Nov 1, 2008	99.84
Oct 1, 2008	88.82
Sep 1, 2008	99.98
Aug 1, 2008	99.66
Jul 1, 2008	95.18
Jun 1, 2008	86.5
May 1, 2008	81.44
Apr 1, 2008	73.68
Mar 1, 2008	60.54
Feb 1, 2008	40.88
Jan 1, 2008	17.42
Dec 1, 2007	5.84
Nov 1, 2007	1.6
Oct 1, 2007	1.1
Sep 1, 2007	0.42
Aug 1, 2007	0.28
Jul 1, 2007	0.52
Jun 1, 2007	0.24
May 1, 2007	0.1
Apr 1, 2007	0.04
Mar 1, 2007	0.04
Feb 1, 2007	0.02
Jan 1, 2007	0.24
Dec 1, 2006	0.0
Nov 1, 2006	0.04
Oct 1, 2006	0.1
Sep 1, 2006	0.08
Aug 1, 2006	0.02
Jul 1, 2006	0.06
Jun 1, 2006	0.08
May 1, 2006	0.1
Apr 1, 2006	0.08
Mar 1, 2006	0.06
Feb 1, 2006	0.1
Jan 1, 2006	0.02
Dec 1, 2005	0.02
Nov 1, 2005	0.0
Oct 1, 2005	0.12
Sep 1, 2005	10.88
Aug 1, 2005	1.68
Jul 1, 2005	0.46
Jun 1, 2005	0.02
May 1, 2005	0.04
Apr 1, 2005	0.0
Mar 1, 2005	0.12
Feb 1, 2005	0.02
Jan 1, 2005	0.0
Dec 1, 2004	0.02
Nov 1, 2004	0.12
Oct 1, 2004	0.0
Sep 1, 2004	0.04
Aug 1, 2004	0.06
Jul 1, 2004	0.04
Jun 1, 2004	0.7
May 1, 2004	0.1
Apr 1, 2004	0.02
Mar 1, 2004	0.04
Feb 1, 2004	0.06
Jan 1, 2004	0.12
Dec 1, 2003	0.24
Nov 1, 2003	0.06
Oct 1, 2003	0.04
Sep 1, 2003	0.06
Aug 1, 2003	0.06
Jul 1, 2003	0.08
Jun 1, 2003	0.08
May 1, 2003	0.18
Apr 1, 2003	0.52
Mar 1, 2003	0.76
Feb 1, 2003	1.02
Jan 1, 2003	0.4
Dec 1, 2002	1.14
Nov 1, 2002	0.36
Oct 1, 2002	0.38
Sep 1, 2002	0.34
Aug 1, 2002	0.24
Jul 1, 2002	0.46
Jun 1, 2002	0.12
May 1, 2002	0.08
Apr 1, 2002	0.2
Mar 1, 2002	0.52
Feb 1, 2002	1.38
Jan 1, 2002	2.42
Dec 1, 2001	6.46
Nov 1, 2001	15.26
Oct 1, 2001	19.54
Sep 1, 2001	26.1
Aug 1, 2001	26.38
Jul 1, 2001	28.44
Jun 1, 2001	29.12
May 1, 2001	28.32
Apr 1, 2001	29.24
Mar 1, 2001	24.64
Feb 1, 2001	19.56
Jan 1, 2001	14.92
Dec 1, 2000	7.74
Nov 1, 2000	4.26
Oct 1, 2000	2.76
Sep 1, 2000	0.78
Aug 1, 2000	0.62
Jul 1, 2000	0.4
Jun 1, 2000	0.3
May 1, 2000	0.2
Apr 1, 2000	0.0
Mar 1, 2000	0.0
Feb 1, 2000	0.08
Jan 1, 2000	0.0
Dec 1, 1999	0.0
Nov 1, 1999	0.0
Oct 1, 1999	0.0
Sep 1, 1999	0.16
Aug 1, 1999	0.1
Jul 1, 1999	0.04
Jun 1, 1999	0.12
May 1, 1999	0.0
Apr 1, 1999	0.04
Mar 1, 1999	0.16
Feb 1, 1999	0.02
Jan 1, 1999	0.04
Dec 1, 1998	0.08
Nov 1, 1998	0.12
Oct 1, 1998	0.04
Sep 1, 1998	0.04
Aug 1, 1998	0.0
Jul 1, 1998	0.36
Jun 1, 1998	0.54
May 1, 1998	0.0
Apr 1, 1998	0.02
Mar 1, 1998	0.08
Feb 1, 1998	0.02
Jan 1, 1998	0.0
Dec 1, 1997	0.0
Nov 1, 1997	0.0
Oct 1, 1997	0.02
Sep 1, 1997	0.0
Aug 1, 1997	0.02
Jul 1, 1997	0.0
Jun 1, 1997	0.02
May 1, 1997	0.02
Apr 1, 1997	0.08
Mar 1, 1997	0.0
Feb 1, 1997	0.0
Jan 1, 1997	0.02
Dec 1, 1996	0.0
Nov 1, 1996	0.0
Oct 1, 1996	0.04
Sep 1, 1996	0.02
Aug 1, 1996	0.0
Jul 1, 1996	0.1
Jun 1, 1996	0.0
May 1, 1996	0.04
Apr 1, 1996	0.06
Mar 1, 1996	0.22
Feb 1, 1996	0.0
Jan 1, 1996	0.26
Dec 1, 1995	0.1
Nov 1, 1995	0.12
Oct 1, 1995	0.12
Sep 1, 1995	0.04
Aug 1, 1995	0.0
Jul 1, 1995	0.16
Jun 1, 1995	0.04
May 1, 1995	0.04
Apr 1, 1995	0.14
Mar 1, 1995	0.14
Feb 1, 1995	0.22
Jan 1, 1995	0.06
Dec 1, 1994	0.0
Nov 1, 1994	0.0
Oct 1, 1994	0.0
Sep 1, 1994	0.0
Aug 1, 1994	0.02
Jul 1, 1994	0.0
Jun 1, 1994	0.0
May 1, 1994	0.02
Apr 1, 1994	0.0
Mar 1, 1994	0.0
Feb 1, 1994	0.06
Jan 1, 1994	0.0
Dec 1, 1993	0.02
Nov 1, 1993	0.0
Oct 1, 1993	0.02
Sep 1, 1993	0.02
Aug 1, 1993	0.1
Jul 1, 1993	0.08
Jun 1, 1993	0.08
May 1, 1993	0.06
Apr 1, 1993	0.04
Mar 1, 1993	0.52
Feb 1, 1993	0.04
Jan 1, 1993	0.0
Dec 1, 1992	0.0
Nov 1, 1992	0.0
Oct 1, 1992	0.02
Sep 1, 1992	0.16
Aug 1, 1992	0.34
Jul 1, 1992	0.0
Jun 1, 1992	0.08
May 1, 1992	0.16
Apr 1, 1992	0.04
Mar 1, 1992	0.06
Feb 1, 1992	0.08
Jan 1, 1992	0.3
Dec 1, 1991	0.52
Nov 1, 1991	0.46
Oct 1, 1991	0.38
Sep 1, 1991	0.18
Aug 1, 1991	0.28
Jul 1, 1991	0.3
Jun 1, 1991	0.28
May 1, 1991	0.66
Apr 1, 1991	3.7
Mar 1, 1991	31.16
Feb 1, 1991	49.28
Jan 1, 1991	56.94
Dec 1, 1990	58.82
Nov 1, 1990	61.22
Oct 1, 1990	57.72
Sep 1, 1990	34.54
Aug 1, 1990	16.5
Jul 1, 1990	7.96
Jun 1, 1990	2.3
May 1, 1990	1.22
Apr 1, 1990	1.04
Mar 1, 1990	0.36
Feb 1, 1990	0.0
Jan 1, 1990	0.16
Dec 1, 1989	0.06
Nov 1, 1989	0.08
Oct 1, 1989	0.22
Sep 1, 1989	0.32
Aug 1, 1989	0.18
Jul 1, 1989	1.5
Jun 1, 1989	0.94
May 1, 1989	1.26
Apr 1, 1989	0.7
Mar 1, 1989	0.5
Feb 1, 1989	0.58
Jan 1, 1989	0.08
Dec 1, 1988	0.0
Nov 1, 1988	0.04
Oct 1, 1988	0.04
Sep 1, 1988	0.02
Aug 1, 1988	0.08
Jul 1, 1988	0.06
Jun 1, 1988	0.02
May 1, 1988	0.12
Apr 1, 1988	0.08
Mar 1, 1988	0.0
Feb 1, 1988	0.02
Jan 1, 1988	0.22
Dec 1, 1987	0.0
Nov 1, 1987	0.0
Oct 1, 1987	0.0
Sep 1, 1987	0.0
Aug 1, 1987	0.04
Jul 1, 1987	0.0
Jun 1, 1987	0.06
May 1, 1987	0.06
Apr 1, 1987	0.06
Mar 1, 1987	0.04
Feb 1, 1987	0.02
Jan 1, 1987	0.82
Dec 1, 1986	0.0
Nov 1, 1986	0.02
Oct 1, 1986	0.1
Sep 1, 1986	0.06
Aug 1, 1986	0.04
Jul 1, 1986	0.06
Jun 1, 1986	0.22
May 1, 1986	0.2
Apr 1, 1986	0.04
Mar 1, 1986	0.28
Feb 1, 1986	0.44
Jan 1, 1986	0.08
Dec 1, 1985	0.04
Nov 1, 1985	0.04
Oct 1, 1985	0.16
Sep 1, 1985	0.02
Aug 1, 1985	0.02
Jul 1, 1985	0.2
Jun 1, 1985	0.18
May 1, 1985	0.04
Apr 1, 1985	0.16
Mar 1, 1985	0.04
Feb 1, 1985	0.02
Jan 1, 1985	0.1
Dec 1, 1984	0.2
Nov 1, 1984	0.04
Oct 1, 1984	0.08
Sep 1, 1984	0.08
Aug 1, 1984	0.08
Jul 1, 1984	0.08
Jun 1, 1984	0.02
May 1, 1984	0.0
Apr 1, 1984	0.0
Mar 1, 1984	0.04
Feb 1, 1984	0.02
Jan 1, 1984	0.02
Dec 1, 1983	0.04
Nov 1, 1983	0.04
Oct 1, 1983	0.0
Sep 1, 1983	0.0
Aug 1, 1983	0.1
Jul 1, 1983	0.0
Jun 1, 1983	0.0
May 1, 1983	0.0
Apr 1, 1983	0.0
Mar 1, 1983	0.06
Feb 1, 1983	1.92
Jan 1, 1983	0.74
Dec 1, 1982	15.6
Nov 1, 1982	38.74
Oct 1, 1982	71.44
Sep 1, 1982	74.56
Aug 1, 1982	78.36
Jul 1, 1982	79.24
Jun 1, 1982	78.7
May 1, 1982	75.52
Apr 1, 1982	72.7
Mar 1, 1982	61.42
Feb 1, 1982	11.7
Jan 1, 1982	93.5
Dec 1, 1981	96.1
Nov 1, 1981	96.08
Oct 1, 1981	93.42
Sep 1, 1981	81.92
Aug 1, 1981	46.98
Jul 1, 1981	2.74
Jun 1, 1981	1.14
May 1, 1981	0.98
Apr 1, 1981	1.16
Mar 1, 1981	1.36
Feb 1, 1981	2.2
Jan 1, 1981	2.7
Dec 1, 1980	0.68
Nov 1, 1980	0.02
Oct 1, 1980	0.0
Sep 1, 1980	0.0
Aug 1, 1980	0.4
Jul 1, 1980	33.72
Jun 1, 1980	87.82
May 1, 1980	99.58
Apr 1, 1980	99.56
Mar 1, 1980	86.16
Feb 1, 1980	39.48
Jan 1, 1980	6.34
Dec 1, 1979	3.42
Nov 1, 1979	2.38
Oct 1, 1979	1.66
Sep 1, 1979	2.18
Aug 1, 1979	2.94
Jul 1, 1979	2.54
Jun 1, 1979	1.4
May 1, 1979	1.2
Apr 1, 1979	28.66
Mar 1, 1979	0.88
Feb 1, 1979	0.44
Jan 1, 1979	1.02
Dec 1, 1978	0.18
Nov 1, 1978	0.0
Oct 1, 1978	0.0
Sep 1, 1978	0.06
Aug 1, 1978	0.02
Jul 1, 1978	0.16
Jun 1, 1978	0.02
May 1, 1978	0.18
Apr 1, 1978	0.0
Mar 1, 1978	0.0
Feb 1, 1978	0.1
Jan 1, 1978	13.68
Dec 1, 1977	1.0
Nov 1, 1977	0.2
Oct 1, 1977	0.04
Sep 1, 1977	0.02
Aug 1, 1977	0.06
Jul 1, 1977	0.04
Jun 1, 1977	0.02
May 1, 1977	0.02
Apr 1, 1977	0.0
Mar 1, 1977	0.0
Feb 1, 1977	0.02
Jan 1, 1977	0.4
Dec 1, 1976	0.0
Nov 1, 1976	0.0
Oct 1, 1976	0.2
Sep 1, 1976	0.04
Aug 1, 1976	0.04
Jul 1, 1976	0.0
Jun 1, 1976	0.04
May 1, 1976	0.08
Apr 1, 1976	0.02
Mar 1, 1976	0.04
Feb 1, 1976	0.0
Jan 1, 1976	0.0
Dec 1, 1975	0.0
Nov 1, 1975	0.04
Oct 1, 1975	0.0
Sep 1, 1975	0.0
Aug 1, 1975	0.0
Jul 1, 1975	0.0
Jun 1, 1975	0.42
May 1, 1975	2.62
Apr 1, 1975	17.04
Mar 1, 1975	93.84
Feb 1, 1975	99.82
Jan 1, 1975	99.9
Dec 1, 1974	100.0
Nov 1, 1974	100.0
Oct 1, 1974	93.26
Sep 1, 1974	81.84
Aug 1, 1974	76.7
Jul 1, 1974	44.3
Jun 1, 1974	33.16
May 1, 1974	21.74
Apr 1, 1974	22.94
Mar 1, 1974	24.1
Feb 1, 1974	25.92
Jan 1, 1974	30.64
Dec 1, 1973	27.28
Nov 1, 1973	0.9
Oct 1, 1973	0.04
Sep 1, 1973	0.02
Aug 1, 1973	0.18
Jul 1, 1973	0.04
Jun 1, 1973	0.1
May 1, 1973	0.04
Apr 1, 1973	0.18
Mar 1, 1973	0.2
Feb 1, 1973	0.0
Jan 1, 1973	0.0
Dec 1, 1972	0.0
Nov 1, 1972	0.0
Oct 1, 1972	0.0
Sep 1, 1972	0.0
Aug 1, 1972	0.0
Jul 1, 1972	0.12
Jun 1, 1972	0.04
May 1, 1972	0.02
Apr 1, 1972	0.02
Mar 1, 1972	0.02
Feb 1, 1972	0.04
Jan 1, 1972	0.0
Dec 1, 1971	0.0
Nov 1, 1971	0.0
Oct 1, 1971	0.04
Sep 1, 1971	0.0
Aug 1, 1971	0.24
Jul 1, 1971	0.7
Jun 1, 1971	0.18
May 1, 1971	0.0
Apr 1, 1971	0.0
Mar 1, 1971	0.52
Feb 1, 1971	1.32
Jan 1, 1971	0.12
Dec 1, 1970	0.0
Nov 1, 1970	30.8
Oct 1, 1970	83.2
Sep 1, 1970	74.24
Aug 1, 1970	54.16
Jul 1, 1970	35.52
Jun 1, 1970	34.44
May 1, 1970	36.32
Apr 1, 1970	39.14
Mar 1, 1970	36.62
Feb 1, 1970	36.04
Jan 1, 1970	47.04
Dec 1, 1969	36.28
Nov 1, 1969	33.0
Oct 1, 1969	5.8
Sep 1, 1969	3.3
Aug 1, 1969	0.26
Jul 1, 1969	0.08
Jun 1, 1969	0.0
May 1, 1969	0.0
Apr 1, 1969	0.16
Mar 1, 1969	0.0
Feb 1, 1969	0.0
Jan 1, 1969	0.02
Dec 1, 1968	0.08
Nov 1, 1968	0.0
Oct 1, 1968	0.02
Sep 1, 1968	0.0
Aug 1, 1968	0.12
Jul 1, 1968	0.02
Jun 1, 1968	0.02
May 1, 1968	0.02
Apr 1, 1968	0.02
Mar 1, 1968	0.0
Feb 1, 1968	0.14
Jan 1, 1968	1.2
Dec 1, 1967	0.06
Nov 1, 1967	0.0
Oct 1, 1967	0.06
Sep 1, 1967	0.24
Aug 1, 1967	0.04
Jul 1, 1967	0.48
Jun 1, 1967	0.82

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