Novavax Stock Analysis


USD 16.54  0.38  2.25%   

The big decline in price over the last few months for Novavaxmay encourage investors to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 16.54 on 2,110,576 in trading volume. The company executives failed to add value to investors and position the firm supply of money to exploit market volatility in October. However, diversifying your holdings with Novavax or similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 6.34. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Novavax partners.
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis.
The Novavax stock analysis report makes it easy to digest most publicly released information about Novavax and get updates on important government artifacts, including earning estimates, SEC corporate filings, and announcements. Novavax Stock analysis module also helps to analyze the Novavax price relationship with some important fundamental indicators such as market cap and management efficiency.

Novavax Stock Analysis Notes

About 47.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 17.51. Novavax had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had a split on the 10th of May 2019. Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Novavax operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1541 people. To find out more about Novavax contact Stanley Erck at 240 268-2000 or learn more at

Novavax Investment Alerts

Many investors view ongoing market volatility as an opportunity to purchase more stocks at a favorable price or short it to generate a bearish trend profit opportunity. If you are one of those investors, make sure you clearly understand the position you are entering. Novavax's investment alerts are automatically generated signals that are significant enough to either complement your investing judgment regarding Novavax or challenge it. These alerts can help you understand what you are buying and avoid costly mistakes.
Novavax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Novavax has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Novavax has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.85 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.32 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (1.39 B).
Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (640.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31.
Novavax has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from What Is Going on With Novavax Stock Today - InvestorPlace

Novavax Upcoming and Recent Events

Earnings reports are used by Novavax to provide an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with three things: an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Novavax previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.
Upcoming Quarterly Report7th of March 2022
Next Financial Report9th of May 2022
Next Fiscal Quarter End31st of December 2021
Next Fiscal Year End7th of March 2022
Last Quarter Report30th of September 2021
Last Financial Announcement31st of December 2020

Novavax Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Novavax's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
View All Earnings Estimates

Novavax Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Novavax is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novavax backward and forwards among themselves. Novavax's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Novavax's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares24.8 K1.3 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares55.2 K4.1 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares25.1 K3.6 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares21.5 K4.5 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares19.8 K4.2 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares7.7 K1.4 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares8.9 K993 K
Note, although Novavax's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Novavax Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Mid-Cap' category with current market capitalization of 1.54 B. Market capitalization usually refers to the total value of a company's stock within the entire market. To calculate Novavax's market, we take the total number of its shares issued and multiply it by Novavax's current market price. To manage market risk and economic uncertainty, many investors today build portfolios that are diversified across equities with different market capitalizations. However, as a general rule, conservative investors tend to hold large-cap stocks, and these looking for more risk prefer small-cap and mid-cap equities.

Novavax Profitablity

Novavax's profitability indicators refer to fundamental financial ratios that showcase Novavax's ability to generate income relative to its revenue or operating costs. If, let's say, Novavax is currently losing money, the management's focus should be on how to reverse that trend. However, when revenue exceeds expenses, Novavax's executives or investors may be in less hurry to break that information down - which is where profitability analysis comes into play. Gaining a greater understanding of Novavax's profitability requires more research than a typical breakdown of Novavax's financial statements. By doing a profitability analysis, companies can identify areas needing attention, and investors can make a profitable trade.
The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (71.59) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (66.38) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of -0.66.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Return on Investment(281.68) (289.10) 
Return on Average Assets(83.85) (90.47) 
Return on Average Equity-1.3 K-1.3 K
Return on Invested Capital(0.41) (0.44) 
Return on Sales(7.34) (7.92) 

Management Efficiency

The entity has return on total asset (ROA) of (31.7) % which means that it has lost $31.7 on every $100 spent on asset. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows return on stockholders equity (ROE) of (238.6) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Novavax management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well novavax manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Return on Investment is likely to drop to -289.1 in 2022. Return on Average Assets is likely to drop to -90.47 in 2022. Novavax Total Assets are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Novavax reported Total Assets of 2.58 Billion in 2021. Current Assets is likely to rise to about 2.3 B in 2022, whereas Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets are likely to drop (9.37)  in 2022.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Book Value per Share(6.95) (7.13) 
Enterprise Value over EBIT(3.45) (3.72) 
Enterprise Value over EBITDA(3.55) (3.83) 
Price to Book Value(0.51) (0.55) 
Tangible Assets Book Value per Share 5.55  5.69 
Enterprise Value402.6 M413.2 M
Tangible Asset Value133.7 M167.4 M

Technical Drivers

As of the 26th of November, Novavax secures the mean deviation of 4.98, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.22). In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check existing technical drivers of Novavax, as well as the relationship between them. Strictly speaking, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Novavax, which can be compared to its peers in the industry. Please verify Novavax jensen alpha and semi variance to decide if Novavax is priced some-what accurately, providing market reflects its recent price of 16.54 per share. Given that Novavax has jensen alpha of (1.19), we recommend you to check Novavax's last-minute market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Novavax Price Movement Analysis

The output start index for this execution was fourty-eight with a total number of output elements of thirteen. The Triple Exponential Moving Average (T3) indicator is developed by Tim Tillson as Novavax price series composite of a single exponential moving average, a double exponential moving average and a triple exponential moving average.

Novavax Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Novavax insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Novavax's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Novavax insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.
John Herrmann over a month ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Herrmann of 667 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Herrmann of 2000 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Trizzino over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Trizzino of 655 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
Kelly James Patrick over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by Kelly James Patrick of 2367 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Payment of 278 shares by John Herrmann of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
Mcglynn Margaret G over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Acquisition by Mcglynn Margaret G of 3100 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Herrmann of 833 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
Rachel King over three months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by Rachel King of 700 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over six months ago via Macroaxis 
Sale by John Herrmann of 500 shares of Novavax
John Herrmann over six months ago via Macroaxis 
Acquisition by John Herrmann of 13825 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over six months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Herrmann of 5000 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3
John Herrmann over six months ago via Macroaxis 
Exercise or conversion by John Herrmann of 2100 shares of Novavax subject to Rule 16b-3

Novavax Predictive Daily Indicators

Novavax intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Novavax stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

Novavax Forecast Models

Novavax time-series forecasting models is one of many Novavax's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Novavax's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

About Novavax Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how Novavax prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling Novavax shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas, a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as Novavax. By using and applying Novavax Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying Novavax entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Operating Margin(78.86) (85.08) 
EBITDA Margin(75.47) (81.43) 
Gross Margin 46.01  45.01 
Profit Margin(79.15) (85.40) 

Current Novavax Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Novavax analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Novavax analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceAdvice# of Analysts
Novavax current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most Novavax analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Novavax stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Novavax, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Novavax conference calls.
Novavax Analyst Advice Details

Novavax Stock Analysis Indicators

Novavax stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how Novavax stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading Novavax shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying Novavax stock analysis, traders can identify Novavax position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Quick Ratio0.83
Fifty Two Week Low16.00
Revenue Growth310.70%
Shares Short Prior Month19.5M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.69M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.83M
Shares Percent Shares Out28.70%
Gross Margins-76.28%
Short Percent Of Float28.79%
Forward Price Earnings-3.70
Float Shares78.25M
Fifty Two Week High236.50
Enterprise Value To Ebitda-0.80
Fifty Day Average21.82
Two Hundred Day Average49.13
Enterprise Value To Revenue0.52
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis. Note that the Novavax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novavax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Novavax price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novavax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Novavax value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.