Novan Stock Target Price and Analyst Consensus

NOVN -  USA Stock  

USD 2.79  0.13  4.45%

The current analyst and expert consensus on Novan is Strong Buy, with 0 strong sell and 3 strong buy opinions. The current projected Novan target price consensus is 41.5 with 4 analyst opinions. The most common way Novan Inc analysts use to provide recommendation to the public is financial statements analysis. Many experts also interview Novan executives and customers to further validate their buy or sell advice. Please note, the number of analysts providing the opinion is not sufficient to provide adequate consensus on Novan. We encourage you to use your own analysis of Novan Inc to validate this buy or sell advice. Novan buy-or-sell recommendation module provides average expert sentiment on the projected Novan Inc target price to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on projected price volatility of 21.377. Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Novan to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.
  
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Novan Target Price Consensus

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Novan target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Novan target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Number of Opinions3
Lowered Outlook0
Raized Outlook0
Strong Buy
Most Novan analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Novan stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Novan Inc, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice   Exposure   Valuation

Novan Target Price Projection

Novan's current and average target prices are 2.79 and 41.50, respectively. The current price of Novan is the price at which Novan Inc is currently trading. On the other hand, Novan's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

Novan Market Quote on 21st of May 2022

Low Price2.66Odds
High Price2.94Odds

2.79

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Novan Target Price

Low Estimate24.0Odds
High Estimate72.0Odds
Number of Analysts4
Standard Deviation21.377

41.5

Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on Novan Inc and the information provided on this page.

Novan Analyst Ratings

Novan's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Novan stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Novan's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Novan's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Average Consensus Estimates

About Novan Target Price Projections

Novan's target price is an analyst's projection of its future price. Price targets can be assigned to all types of securities, from complex investment products to stocks such as Novan Inc and even bonds. If the target price is unavailable, it is most likely because there were not enough analyst opinions to come up with a consensus estimate. When setting a price target estimate, an analyst is trying to determine what the Stock is worth and where the price will be in a year from now. Generally, the target price of Novan depends on its intrinsic valuation, beta (i.e., risk over market), and overall volatility. Most analysts publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with their buy, hold, or sell recommendations. Stock price targets are often quoted in the financial news media. Macroaxis uses multiple feeds to provide overall target price projection for Novan Inc including analysis of its current option contracts.
Novan's latest option contracts expiring on 2022-06-17 are carrying combined implied volatility of 187.11 with a put-to-call open interest ratio of 1.43 over 6 outstanding agreements suggesting investors are buying way more puts than calls on contracts expiring on 2022-06-17. The current put volume is at 2, with calls trading at the volume of 7. This yields a 0.29 put-to-call volume ratio. The Novan option chain provides detailed quote and price information for the current Novan Inc option contracts. It shows all of Novan's listed puts, calls, expiration dates, strike prices, and other pricing information.
Novan's stock options are financial instruments that give investors the right to buy or sell shares of Novan Inc common stock at a specified price for a given time period. Generally speaking, an option to purchase or sell Novan stock makes it part of the underlying stock when the option's price is tied to the movement of the underlying stock. If Novan's stock price goes up or down, the stock options follow.
Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Novan to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Novan Inc In The Money Call Balance

When Novan's strike price is surpassing the current stock price, the option contract against Novan Inc stock is said to be in the money. When it comes to buying Novan's options that are 'In the Money' or 'Out of the Money', the choice depends on your outlook for the underlying security, financial situation, and what you are trying to achieve.
While 'out-of-the-money' options written on Novan Inc are typically viewed as the more aggressive, there are potential upsides to purchasing these types of options contracts. For one, the cost to buy an 'Out of the Money' option is lower than the cost to buy an 'In the Money' option. This cost-benefit is due to the fact that at the time of the purchase, 'Out of the Money' contracts have no intrinsic value. So, while the potential for a 100% loss is more significant, the cost and risk to enter the trade are lower.

Novan Current Options Market Mood

Novan's open interest and total value indicators provide investors with the necessary information to digest the overall options buildup for its expiring contracts. In addition, it helps Novan Stock's traders understand whether a recent fall or rise in the market is unreasonable and if the time has come to take contrarian positions. These ratios are calculated based on options trading volumes and current open interest.

Put-to-Call Open Interest

Put-to-Call Volume

Most options investors, including buyers and sellers of Novan's calls and puts, are not very successful. It is estimated that an average options trader loses somewhere between 80% to 90% of the time. Novan's option open interest and volume spread between outstanding puts and calls are regarded by many investors as reliable indicators of the overall future market direction. Using current Novan's option volume and open interest to make an investment decision is considered a contrarian-sentiment measure that can be utilized in many timing strategies in both derivative and spot marketplace.

Additional Novan Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Novan is a key component of Novan valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Novan.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Novan in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.142.786.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.5112.3916.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.062.867.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.92-1.79-1.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Novan Inc.

Additional Novan Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Novan is a key component of Novan valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Novan.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Novan in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.142.786.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.5112.3916.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.062.867.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.92-1.79-1.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Novan Inc.

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Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Novan to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon. Note that the Novan Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novan's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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The data published in Novan's official financial statements usually reflect Novan's business processes, product offerings, services, and other fundamental events. But there are other numbers, ratios, or fundamental indicators derived from these statements that are easier to understand and visualize within the underlying realities that drive quantitative information of Novan Inc. For example, before you start analyzing numbers published by Novan accountants, it's critical to develop an understanding of what Novan's liquidity, profitability, and earnings quality are in the context of the Healthcare space in which it operates.
Please note, the presentation of Novan's financial position, as portrayed in its financial statements, is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, Novan's management is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, the imprecision that can be found in Novan's accounting process means that the reasonable investor should take a skeptical approach toward the financial statement analysis of Novan Inc. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of Novan's management to manipulate its earnings.